Elections

  • If an election were held today…

    The prospect of an election today could have excited Reform UK out of their Millbank offices and into the fray once again for a battle on the streets, but enthusiasm might have frayed for the other big hitters.

    In the event, Labour would have scored another first place result, topping the Conservatives, but for a minority stake in government. A much reduced share of seats – perhaps at 310 – would pin it as a lone star or a partner with another.

    The Conservatives could have scooped 220, leading to a small success story for an existing cohort and a new slew of hopefuls. The outcome would put it closer behind but not on-top of Labour to determine a closer path ahead.

    The rest is determined by history, or a forthcoming narrative out of the towns and cities eager for their say in the great scheme of things. Reform UK may have even pulled in many more than eight to show some fight in the game. It’s all possible now.

  • Reform UK still poll strongly under a Labour government

    The punishing regime of a Labour government has not dampened the turnout for Reform UK, as the Gorton and Denton by-election results showed yesterday. Although a Green candidate won it, Matt Goodwin managed a second place finish with 10,578 votes.

    It’s a good showing in a Greater Manchester constituency that may be wary of a national personality showing up on its doorstep to talk about Reform politics.

    The outpacing by Hannah Spencer MP (Gorton and Denton/Green Party) is a stunning victory for the Green alliance of interests, but it’s a far cry from real politics. Reform must do better next time.

  • Gorton and Denton is a tossup between Labour and Reform UK

    Try as they might, the Conservative party is on the back foot in many respects. It has seen the departure of some of its MP’s, the loss of structure as it fails to keep up pace, and declining media exposure as Labour take up more airtime.

    These are not good prospects in a buoyant time due to a Labour majority. The timing of the Gorton and Denton by-election is therefore bad luck for the Badenoch clan. They can’t keep up pace with such a stunning race for victory.

    The advance of Reform UK is on the scene of Labour’s grab for the seat back, having lost it following the departure of its holder due to sickness concerns. It’s therefore hotly contested as the governing party and the newest kid on the block equally look for a big PR splash.

  • If an election were held today…

    If an election were held today, the result may tip the balance of what would have been a fraught year or so at the helm for Labour.

    The ongoing demise of the Prime Minister’s popularity as well as the struggle of his Cabinet to make their own away above the noise and clamour of news media would have reflected in a poorer result.

    It’s likely Labour regions may have held firm, or groups of constituencies that see the promise in more affordable housing and intervention for failing or struggling businesses and industries.

    However, single constituencies with less confidence in Labour’s broader plans could have fallen away to vote Conservative for a more open minded plan for change.

    The Conservative party itself would have made significant gains because its leader is promoting herself and her policies with gusto.

    This usually achieves a bounce in its membership and may be enough to help them peak above 200 seats to comfortably challenge an incoming Labour government.

  • Argentina’s President hails a victory

    President Javier Milei of Argentina has hailed a stunning mid-term comeback after searing criticism of his policies.

    His party saw its seat share in the Lower and Upper houses increase by around twice its 2023 result, backing its leader.

  • An election today would change things

    If an election is held today, the result may be telling of how the main parties in the Commons are struggling to get through to ordinary people.

    Labour might end up with a much reduced majority, as it’s said, and therefore less authority. Its Plan for Change would stall.

    The Conservatives might not even rise above its 121 last time, but Labour losses might tip it over – if it’s lucky.

    The rise of Reform UK is subject of speculation, but its tally would probably fall far short of its greatest hopes.

    The Liberal Democrats are strong, but its dreams of a heyday are far off and it would probably return a decent outcome.

    If the argument is over handling of issues, the Government can tout its raft of announcements, but one good idea may sink it yet if it gets through to people.

  • Corbyn launches everybody’s Not My Party

    Jeremy Corbyn – the unofficial left-wing Labour party – has launched Your Party with Zarah Sultana, a fellow independent MP.

    It’s not quite there yet.

    However seismic the announcement, they’ve got to form everything that’s left apart from its name.

    It means a lot of work.

    The plaudits and pundits will come out to play with this. It’s also guaranteed to draw haters. It’s not everyone’s cup of tea.

  • NYC & election diversity

    New Yorkers will vote this November for their next Mayor. It’s a contentious race. Democrats are choosing their candidate. It’s fractious. It brings up a lot of the problems in the city.

    Integration issues – Spectrum News

    In recent years a big issue is multiculturalism. It’s strained relations. For a short while a noticeable influx of migrants changed the city. It’s raised questions of pressure on local services.

  • Reform UK win two mayoralties

    Reform UK now have two Mayors, thanks to this set of local elections. It has a Mayor in Greater Lincolnshire, and Hull and East Yorkshire. This makes it a new force in elected mayoralties in the UK.

  • Local elections end today

    It’s a big day for local politics in some areas. There are elections for 14 county councils, eight unitary councils, one metropolitan borough council, and in the Isle of Scilly.

  • Carney wins Canada election

    Mark Carney has won the Premiership of Canada, beating Pierre Poilievre’s party into second place.

    The Globe And Mail – YouTube

    He’s projected to emerge as the victor. It follows a tight race between liberals and conservatives in Canada.

  • Poilievre starts Premier campaign

    Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, has started his campaign to become Prime Minister of Canada.

    Pierre Poilievre via YouTube

    It follows Mark Carney calling an election after his stunning Liberal Party leadership win earlier this month and swearing in as Prime Minister.

  • Reform launch Hull Mayor candidate

    The new Hull and East Yorkshire Combined Authority is getting a Mayor this May. The election is due to produce its first post holder. It covers a newly created devolved power made up of councils across the specified region.

    The attraction of new investment, as well as authority over local issues like transport, will bring a renewed sense of vision and purpose to the area. It’s also an opportunity for political parties to cut their teeth on a new office.

    Reform UK have announced Luke Campbell MBE, an Olympic boxer, as their inaugural candidate at an event this evening in Hulll. Cambell says he will take a personal line if elected, representing local concerns and not politics.

  • A tale of two elections

    The general elections in the UK and the US have few similarities. It’s difficult to draw parallels between Rishi Sunak MP (Richmond and Northallerton/Conservatives) and Donald Trump, and Sir Keir Starmer MP (Holborn and St Pancras/Labour) and Kamala Harris.

    The one coincidence is both occur on significant holidays in the respective countries. The UK election fell on Independence Day, the highest holiday in the US. In the US, their election has fallen on our Guy Fawkes Night, which continues to be symbolic for us.

  • If an election were held today…

    If an election were held today, what could the outcome be considering the past few months in politics, and performance of each of the main parties we’ve got?

    In review, they’ve all now had their annual conferences and must feel buoyant at the prospect of resuming next week. In actual fact it doesn’t look great in the media stakes.

    In general, it might be fair to say Labour could win again but with a slimmed down majority, as they say. It may resemble something like 250-300 given its misgivings of late.

    The Tories may fair better than Sunak because of a renewed ‘look’ and appeal, but it’s unlikely to bounce back high above the 121 under Rishi Sunak, so maybe 175-200.

    The Liberal Democrats have done well to make a resurgence in the polls to a respectable number, but its policy hasn’t yet come through yet, and so perhaps 50-65 seats.

    Reform UK are on the up and likewise feel buoyant, but if it’s an enthusiasm worth winning on I’m not sure. I suggest a more reasonable 50 is a fair share at present.

    It’s left to the Greens, Scots, and Independent’s to fill up whatever’s left, so around 60-80 seats in my view. It’s not a huge result, but it helps to include everyone else.