Diplomacy

  • As the US departs, Iran will resume questioning

    The State of Iran is a hard one to figure out at the best of times. The short history of an experiment of alternative rule – or regime – has produced few benefits relative to its overall ambition.

    Hardline Islamic schools in the country have seen the end of Monarchy, which pleases its clerics, and not just because at their worst they just see it as just another form of Christianity itself.

    The politically motivated classes have been able to put a hammer to the anvil and strike against the West in its sympathies, which has helped its sense of identity, and defined a manner of its activity.

    But there’s no such success for the Supreme Leadership at the top, which frustrated the predecessor to Mojtaba Khamenei completely, and no doubt contributed to the insecurity that preceded his death by assassination by Israel.

    It’s a scene ordinary Iranians (the majority who don’t have a role to play) look at, using publicly available media and private conversations so they understand. As the nation moves on, ending its confrontation with America, their questioning will resume in earnest.

    As a result, Iran will spring up again, bursting into diplomacy and spreading its influence to make sense of more mightier affairs. A return to normal activity, then, and helping the consequences of this season to last for a long while.

  • Russia needs to smell the coffee

    Putin may be feeling rough right now for good reason. His war in Ukraine is stalling, providing few signals of hope for the Russian leader. It looks like a policy mistake from the ground up. Although Russians look to such matters as part of their unfolding narrative – seeing hardship perpetually in the past, and receding further behind them – it’s not easy to reclaim the moral high-ground on this one.

    The next move has to be a retreat and peacemaking agenda. Europe is resolved to see a cessation of hostilities through to completion. It cannot fathom ‘giving up’ a potential EU member for the simple goal of placating Moscow’s disgruntled military chiefs. There’s no charity involved in its diplomacy at present, either. It’s short thrift for anyone seeking to confuse matters on the ground.

    The Russian President has an outlook that’s different, however, and as far as his statements on Ukraine have been insulting so far, his next will be criticisms of its future. He has a way of seeing everything from a strictly nationalistic perspective, and it never runs dry. We only have to wait for his pontifications because the script is written for him. His feeling of dominance looms larger than any call for compromise.

  • Ukraine needs to get regional backing first

    Ukraine has testy relations with its European neighbours, so say top officials in its diplomatic units and academics that train the next generation in its Universities at home. The galvanising force of anti-Russia hatred only goes so far as to make them ideologically aligned, but practical realities aren’t yet in synch to put on a strong front.

    Shots of Russian military activity posted to a Telegram channel in 2022 (Credit: @Russia_Ukraine9/Telegram).

    President Zelenskyy has a tough time ahead because his voters want Europe to emerge united after war and this means reaching out to leaders who even have arguments with themselves. Russia can hope that at least this falls apart if its war ambitions are diminished.

    Putin is a key contact for the disaffected, however, and his teams will seek to be disruptive in any prolonged negotiation period. They will pick up on existing tensions and try the patience of the well-meaning. In his view, a divided Europe is as much a win as Ukraine.

  • Europe may have to go quietly on its Anti-Americanism

    The Russia-Ukraine war is a disastrous affair. For Europeans who believe in a peaceful post-war settlement it challenges everything. The never ending progress of harmony is stalled, struggling across a border in Eastern Europe. The security of Europe is under such a serious threat it has to be considered existential.

    But, a perverse Anti-Americanism is creating a narrative arc. It threatens how Europeans have seen this issue since 1945. America isn’t far behind many breakthroughs in deadlocks that occur because of seemingly insurmountable odds. Their exclusion could sink European ideals which are its main priority in the modern era.

    The extrication of the world’s only superpower is a ridiculous idea. It’s a disastrous denial of the existing world order as it is, and yet another exaggeration of Europe’s ability to do things for itself. The European project is one thing, but the rest of the world is still an entirely separate reality. Europe’s leaders need to consider this first.

  • Russia can’t touch our nuclear deterrent

    The fact of Russia wanting to question the nuclear deterrent of the UK is a long running argument that is calm but can lead to acrimony sometimes. It depends on who’s involved because Russia worries and some of our representatives are not good at talking to other people.

    The existence of a nuclear deterrent is unquestionable because of the provision of advantages that it gives and other states know about this because they can look at it. This brings up and out the questions over use and not over existence.

    Andrey Vladimirovich Kelin speaking about the UK nuclear deterrent in Russian (Credit: Russian Embassy in London/YouTube).

    The Russia ambassador is entitled to ask questions about the UK and in fact authorities here welcome it because it gives a chance to respond fairly and in good time. However, it doesn’t lead to more than talking about the technology itself because Russia knows a lot about it.

    The inherent fact about nuclear technology in the context of a deterrent is that it’s safe. It seeks to protect itself and this is the main reason for a rising threat or for an outward confrontation. This is how it acts as a deterrent – as experts often have to state here in the UK.

  • China is engaging, but shut off, from the outside world

    The idea in China of a modern progression but with a rule of Communism with nationalist characteristics is an endeavour that took arduous work and a studious attention to the detail.

    However, while it’s a defining feature of pride in self and community in such tight confines in the most populous country on earth, it hasn’t brought about a closer, lasting connection to other nations.

    This is a curious mark on the global map at present, because in spite of so much diplomacy there is such little dialogue passing between us.

    The UK’s position is careful but clever at the moment. Our leaders have struck out to challenge China’s dominance in the spy space, but has held back on making outright accusations on trade.

    The plan for a new London embassy – dubbed “super” because of its size – is on the backdrop of this tense exchange of terms.

    The presence of more of China’s officials should embolden those given to an outlook of positivity and greater participation in world affairs. It suggests there’s one opening that might work, and it’s a big one.

    The ideal may soon slip into grim reality because such work takes time, enterprise, and more time. This isn’t our strong point at the moment, and no one has offered a contribution that makes it more likely.

    The question isn’t easily answered by risk assessments of facts against truth. It’s the engagement of persons and the results of it that makes for more useful public debate.

    It’s a matter of if we’re ready for the great challenge of seeing eye to eye with another world power, and one that has a particularly special prominence in many of the leading matters of the day.

  • Putin needs to look beyond war

    Russia often feels it’s at the height of its powers in diplomacy. It takes its cue from what others say and because it has a lot to respond with it feels in control. However, most of this is found to be historical bias and not a lot of it translates here.

    The democratic cause Ukraine has to fight for is less historic but more pressing today than the past. It has more to it than mere feelings of nostalgia. It’s not a sentiment. It’s a reality of how people live and how we’re getting along here.

  • Russian Intelligence has improved

    The Russian state of affairs is changing rapidly, but it’s not evidently clear yet. This is intended and it’s usually the case for large, powerful states.

    Russia is improving its capabilities, but it’s not something for us to celebrate.

    Its new nuclear power is something to consider, if not plan a response to. It may be an ongoing problem in diplomatic terms and also in the manner in which we have to relate to Russian advances.

    It’s also believed that Russian Intelligence has improved its capability markedly. This is indicated by subtle rearrangements that have been seen in public, and the considered way in which Putin has looked at the war in Ukraine.

    Any improvement of this capability at any level is a huge concern to us because of what it means.

    It could lead to better understanding of hostile Russian agents against us and our interests. It means we need to be more careful and pay more attention to the detail.

    It could mean a much more aware and dynamic news sector in its remit as a branch of the State. This may entail more criticisms and less of a reason to ignore it.

    It could increase the interaction we have to undertake – on a serious level – with any Russian institutions that have cultural sway or impact. This means greater dialogue.

    The services that a decent Intelligence service provides are invaluable to a state, and if so, may prove to be a boost in prospects for the pariah known as Russia.

  • The UN lacks advice

    The fact now is that as the world looks increasingly out of shape, the global bodies that make up the largest attempt to keep it in shape are bereft not just of immediate ideas but of things to say that may lead to reasonable conclusions, or at the very least requests for further, useful information.

    The debacle the UN plunged itself into recently concerning its criticism of Israel shows just how volatile its forum of debate is. It looks unsafe for delegates to state points that may lead it to making different conclusions. It certainly feels unsafe even on the fringes here, as argument turns to rancour.

    In the UK we’ve long suspected the involvement of less than qualified individuals in its whole remit. This has led to impressions of abusive attitudes at its core. In one sense, we feel offended by people who give us the impression they hate who we are. As simple individuals who identify with common ethical values, we’ve learned to hate our own souls deeply.

    The lack of rigorous analysis of claims and counter-claims has led to ordinary people feeling disheartened. This world looks bleak to those of us who seek to work hard in it. The evenings are stale, one mother told me, because she feels humanity hates a position she’s not adopted in the first place. The spread of protest has unleashed an unlimited feeling of rejection.

    The UN itself clearly lacks decent advice. I’ve seen the effects of its poorly handled, marginal influence in the world in the backstreets of London, where families have worried because they are posited as enemies of Western culture. They choose to enjoy life here, if not to learn more about it than avoid the fake news of hating it as the ethnic minority on its fringes.

  • Russia denies NATO aggression

    The Ukraine-Russia conflict has so far managed to throw up every controversy into the air. In particular, Russia has defended its position by saying it has zero intention to attack a NATO-affiliated country.

    According to Russian news agency TASS, a spokesperson from the Russian Foreign Ministry has said the idea is “an orchestrated campaign to indoctrinate” NATO members, denying it’s a policy of the Russian state.

    This fight is not just a war of words, but also of competing interests in media coverage. It’s replete across our news stations the accusation that drones have flown overhead into NATO member states.

  • Our leaders are aligned with Hamas now

    The state of Israel is in a continued paralysis internationally because of its actions against Hamas. This is despite the incursions into Afghanistan and Iraq that followed significant attacks on New York City, and the support that such Western powers have also since showed to those who topple regimes that are no longer communicative.

    The secular church of protest has its way of response, which is often exclusionary and insistent of its message. We know the feeling now. They’ve already decided the Jewish state is a genocidal aggressor, and we better get on side or be on the wrong side of their history. It’s a course in denial, dismissal, and division of the population itself.

    According to their lore, we’ve been here before. The evil empires of the past, and the religions that started all of them, couldn’t be worse villains. Yet here they are, dictating their wishes and defining their outcome – which we must accept. They drag us into their controversies and throw us back out again, having roughed us up – and denied us dignity.

    They’re apparently good people, yet their way of politics denies it. They don’t come forward with policies that will work, or budgeted plans, or ideas we can all adopt. They strike out with the same old antisemitism, a now-familiar anti-religious hate, and a threat to tear down our national security. These are the fathomless errors of our age, and it needs to stop.

  • Power is given, power is taken away

    A strong theme in most biblical preaching in the UK is the removal of power. It’s done – in religious terms – if a people are judged by God to have zero credibility. The high walls come down. The armies are defeated. The kingdom is overcome.

    The teaching of this has reached a lot of people over the years. We get the humiliation some rulers feel in the process. We know of the jubilation that can result afterwards. We also know it’s more nuanced than that at times, like the Nativity.

    However, the lessons are played out in our modern lives too. The falling of some power bases. The titling of alliances this way or that. The failure of a plan to overtake. This is unfolding right before our eyes in every part of the world. These truths are always relevant to us.

  • Queen Camilla is a consummate performer

    The Royal visit to Rome brought out two aspects of the current Monarchy in full view.

    First, it shows a dominant King that knows his realm and understands the purposes of many international things.

    Second, it shows Queen Camilla is able to hold her own even in a slow, male-led environment.

    She looked the part as the Vatican loomed large over her. She took her place and held it as an English Queen should.

    It was a moment dedicated to friendship but also Royal ways. The Queen is a strong leader and advocate for a modern outreach.

  • Russia and Cuba pal up again

    The Russia-Ukraine war is striking deep divisions into the soil of international relations, and yet Russia is striving to make further incisions.

    The recent ratification by Russia’s Federation Council of an agreement for an exploration of strategic ties with Cuba is a haunting echo of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    It’s also a show of contempt for the efforts of world leaders to make peace today. The old Russia makes new waves in a modern facade of a warmongering nation.

  • The UN has post – but no content

    The UN is an international organisation with reach. However it regularly abuses its position in regards to Israel. It uses clout to pour scorn on a democratic nation in the Middle East.

    It’s easy to do but hard to recover from. The tough talk in its General Assembly is hollow. It’s detached from reality. Israel is a diplomatic and tactful nation. Its collegiate core has neither.

    The UN has a mission but its conduct is questionable. The beleaguered Jewish state has nowhere to turn to. It seeks solace in its sense of right. It seeks solutions in its actions.