Elections

  • The Wales loss is hitting Labour hard

    It’s difficult not to think parts of the Labour party are in planning mode because of its sudden loss of prominence in Wales due to a Plaid Cymru and Reform UK bounce.

    Andy “The Madman” Burnham and Wes Streeting MP (Ilford North/Labour) have both indicated an attempt for the top prize, albeit the former needs a seat first and can then bid for the top office.

    Streeting has a more realistic chance of taking over from the Prime Minister, but Angela Rayner MP (Ashton-under-Lyne/Labour) too has been reported to be looking to launch a leadership bid.

    Albeit it’s a hoo-ha, no one has come out with firm evidence that it will even open up. After an electoral bruising, this period of introspection isn’t turning out well, is it?

  • Reform UK seek upsurge in MPs next

    The success of a partial set of local elections last week is guiding enthusiasm in Reform UK for yet more – and greater – gains on a national level.

    According to insider reports, the party hopes to be on course for 82 seats at a general election in the near future.

    It’s an aggregate number formed by using people’s predictions and own reasoning on the matter.

    It may place it above the Liberal Democrats as current standings go, but it excludes any further votes that would go to them if a reaction was felt necessary by voters.

  • Reform UK bring it home for a popular rebuke

    Reform UK has changed its fortune’s virtually overnight by winning big in both Wales and Scotland’s national elections. Even though they tie in second place with Labour in Scotland with 17 MSPs, it’s their first big splash into politics in the nation. It’s a strong hand to start with.

    Total number of representatives in national Parliament’s to date (Image credit/source: xAI Grok/Original)​.
    Total number of representatives in national parliament’s to date (Image credit/source: xAI Grok/original).

    It shows their prospects as a party can improve as they match performance with major political parties in places not necessarily seen to be their heartland. In fact, it suggests that the London-based party has a utility beyond a narrowly defined support base.

    *A change was made to update the image caption.

  • Reform UK storms to second place in Wales

    In a remarkable turn of events for a new party, and in a sudden upsurge of political power, Reform UK has won 34 seats in the Welsh Senedd, placing it behind Plaid Cymru as the second biggest party in Wales and a force for change in the devolved nation.

    Welsh Senedd Seats - Reform UK (34) & Conservatives (7)

    Nigel Farage MP (Clacton/Reform UK) and his Welsh counterpart, Dan Thomas (Casnewydd Islwyn/Reform UK), have stunned doubters to reach prominence at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives, who languish in third and fourth places respectively.

  • Reform UK get a chance in a London council

    A key win has come through in the local elections for Reform UK in London in the form of Havering council. At this point, it’s just one, but taking it from no party majority to control in its own fold is a massive achievement and a breakthrough in prime territory for the new party.

    It was a likely bet, according to political strategists with links to local University politics faculties, and should raise hopes of more councils in future. The root and strength of a party like Reform UK could be in London boroughs, to support its less benefited constituencies, and council areas in other parts of the UK.

  • Reform UK want strong gains in Wales and Scotland

    Reform UK is becoming a professional party with ambitions in mind. With Wales and Scotland voting for their national representatives tomorrow, they’re at a breakthrough moment for a renewed structure.

    The challenge is serious, because to win over voters who doubt their integrity due to accusations against their leader and possibly a local candidate, they need to have made an impact in person.

    Since real power is at stake, Farage’s party may have a big boost coming tomorrow at the highest level because of devolved voters. Its entry into UK politics may be assured by key wins that surprise those who covet the status quo.

  • Farage wants politics back in the game

    Nigel Farage MP (Clacton/Reform UK) is a politician on a mission. He wants to put politics back into the hands of UK citizens.

    He hates references to irrelevant places, knowing that local government serves people in ways others can’t.

    “It won’t be Iran that helps us,” he once said to me, referring to the disruption of local areas by protesters. “Those households need to pipe down,” he also said.

    His party, Reform UK, needs to make significant gains to take on the Conservative party, which he sees as “failing us massively” on many policy issues.

    He doesn’t hate the Tories, but he despises delay and loathes laziness.

    He’s a politician with attitude, and as his media tours have indicated, it drives his effort to reach out.

    The long term strategy is Number 10, but his aim in the meantime is to win people over to his program of events anywhere they want him.

  • New York City hits reality with Mamdani rhetoric

    The talkative part is over as soon as the election result is declared. The difficulty sets in and it can show. In other large cities, a new Mayor discovers that just a part of their platform is not possible. In New York’s case it may be they discover all of Mamdani’s key points are unlikely to work out well.

    There’s a particular relaxation of the rules when it comes to a Left candidate in America. People recognise that the policies are unsound and not workable but give extra room for effort. It looks good to have somebody that’s enthusiastic about the role at least. 

    In time, however, to make the office professional again, there has to be a search for answers. This leads to a drafting in of local experts to help make the plans that will benefit the area more solidly. These replace the goals made by crowds at their respective kitchen tables.

    In New York City, there’s usually a reckoning soon after an election with the reality of not just statistics but public opinion. There’s a wide variety of interest groups in the City that feel alarm over the level of decay that’s taken place so far. This is a difficult front to have to overcome and cannot be won popularly.

    While Mamdani has a politically motivated constituency of his own, the groups are very wealthy and heavily invested in the built environment. An issue like rent control, which is really a matter of who lives where, is not a battle that he can win easily. It’s also already coveted by social experts who look at it religiously.

    If he’s a diplomat, he’ll provide clarity between all the competing groups in an important urban space. His likely ethic is to hedge with charity but align with reality. This will bring a modicum of change, but not reassure most renters who need their monthly payment to be affordable. It’s also not something that can last fifty years into the future.

    Magic Mamdani may be able to work some spells and get people to agree behind closed doors, but it’ll be a far cry from his rhetoric during the campaign. The lesson of the Left continues in one of the biggest fields of play in the world. It’s a test of democracy, but also of people’s patience, and such wrangling as this can’t last forever before the real troubles come.

  • Gorton and Denton isn’t a Muslim vote issue

    The topic of Islam has come up circumspectly in a by-election being held today in Greater Manchester, in a seat that Mayor Andy Burnham has not managed to find permission to contest. The lack of a popular figure has given rise to the belief that a Green candidate can win – even as a consolation for the Muslim community of these areas.

    The point is not, however, that a conflict elsewhere and statements here makes for a ‘Muslim’ candidacy out of a non-Muslim environmentalist. It doesn’t. The candidacy that makes a difference in any religious sense is one that has a practising context. This leaves the rest of the slate to be judged culturally, and not as a mockup of a local worshipping community.

    “As a general rule, the minimum we should do is register to vote. By doing this, we each become a person whom political parties need to win over, if they want to stay in power. It makes politicians more responsive to our views, and means they have to support policies that benefit our communities if they want to keep us on side.”

    – Dr. Haitham al-Haddad/Islam21C.

    The point is made laboriously by Muslim scholars in the UK, who write at length about the need for Muslims to stay focused, to not be radicalised for the sake of any agenda at all, and to remember core principles by which to make a decision by themselves – and without outside influence, whatever the source. This is a core enlightenment principle, anyway, and is what we stand by in a country such as ours.

    Islam21C, a Muslim-led organisation, has published an article on its website by Dr. Haitham al-Haddad, penning into print his thoughts and views on the matter at hand. He takes a sage approach to the issue, making sure to draw comparisons with broad Islamic principles in as broad a way as the campaign has opened up for respective candidates. It doesn’t count as an affirmation for any one party, but a reaffirmation of Muslim participation this time.

  • Reform UK aim for Scotland

    Reform UK has taken its fight to Holyrood after its biggest defection yet from the Conservatives turned out to be Lord Offord of Garvel.

    It means Reform UK Scotland will contest a seat in Scotland’s Parliament with the former Peer as its potential breadwinner.

  • NYC Mayoralty race hots up

    The NYC Mayoralty race took the stage for a second time yesterday.

    It was a chance for the three candidates to make their mark before polling day. It’s considered a calendar moment for the politically-interested in New York.

    It sets the scene for future political activity and the tone for debate and the many disagreements in the city.

    Andrew Cuomo (Independent) speaks his mind on the record of Zohran Mamdani.

    The issue of personal record comes up often in politics. It’s believed a strong campaign involves speaking eloquently about another candidates flaws.

    Although in some contexts this is considered “dirty politics”, in others it’s a test of character.

    It determines if the future office holder is capable of holding their own in a front facing public position.

  • The Green Party is out of focus

    The Green Party is a renegade feature in UK politics. It strikes out to represent green issues without apology. It campaigns hard even without the limelight.

    Its lack of prominence means that new things like GB Energy – a Government-owned sponsor of renewables – don’t hit home as a specific win for its way of politics. The truth is, however, green is still on the agenda. It must be to the credit of this party.

    The problems scale out from there. The lack of direction – or focus – in the green movement in the UK is telling in a plethora of names and eccentric events that don’t bite as hard as some hope.

    The slogans, signage, and statements of the mainstream must feel like a whitewash. It’s must look like a denial of the truth. However, their truth needs to come across as more than a feeling and much more like a purpose.

    The success of Mothin Ali, for example, joining Rachel Millward as Deputy Leader of the Green Party yesterday, shows that progress is being made. Ali is an avid gardener and political activist, making links using his local roots.

    This makes sense because it shows what green politics can be locally when so much of the national debate is narrative of back and forth accusation.

  • An election today would change things

    If an election is held today, the result may be telling of how the main parties in the Commons are struggling to get through to ordinary people.

    Labour might end up with a much reduced majority, as it’s said, and therefore less authority. Its Plan for Change would stall.

    The Conservatives might not even rise above its 121 last time, but Labour losses might tip it over – if it’s lucky.

    The rise of Reform UK is subject of speculation, but its tally would probably fall far short of its greatest hopes.

    The Liberal Democrats are strong, but its dreams of a heyday are far off and it would probably return a decent outcome.

    If the argument is over handling of issues, the Government can tout its raft of announcements, but one good idea may sink it yet if it gets through to people.

  • NYC’s Mayor race is a deciding factor

    The biggest city on earth isn’t an easy task for any candidate. The hottest political ticket outside of Washington is a steep learning curve. The issues are always stubborn and the events that unfold there are usually on a massive scale.

    The public persona of a New York City Mayor is tantamount to gold dust if it’s right. The calming charisma of a showman leader can have a positive effect. It’s shown in the uptick in morale of city workers and residents during a crisis.

    The front runners in this year’s race all fit the bill in some way. They speak boldly into a climate of fear and cautious optimism. There’s a belief things can change but it’s hard to see right now. This is how any candidate can seek to capitalise.

    The figure of Zohran Mamdani is looming large in some ways because of his socialist roots. However his fresh take on stubborn problems is drawing serious interest. The Left may provoke at times, but others at the front are offering reassurances in their outgoing radicalism.

    The fate of Andrew Cumo in this race is not yet set in stone, but he looks to be struggling. He knows New York well, but so does New York and he needs to come up with some ideas to deserve the office. His effort is less straightforward because he has to fit into the status quo there.

    The burden on the eventual winner is not a victory to savour for very long at all. The hard work of setting straight the problems in a bustling city sets in quickly and can eviscerate a leader as efficiently. Whoever it is needs to take great care to take any matter presented seriously.

  • Your Party celebrate new subscribers

    Zarah Sultana MP (Coventry South/Independent) has marked interest for Your Party.

    It’s a new effort to take on the political establishment in Lefty style.

    It’ll never be clear what it is and its aims will verge on criminal.

    However, it’ll keep people happy meanwhile.

    The reactions to her post show its direction of travel in the UK’s difficult political scene.

    “I’ve signed up for the bants, doesn’t mean I’m going to vote for you”, says one user (@BLAIMGame).

    “Soon to be the first British party with one million members”, Council Estate News predicts.