General Election

  • If an election were held today…

    If an election were held today, what could the outcome be considering the past few months in politics, and performance of each of the main parties we’ve got?

    In review, they’ve all now had their annual conferences and must feel buoyant at the prospect of resuming next week. In actual fact it doesn’t look great in the media stakes.

    In general, it might be fair to say Labour could win again but with a slimmed down majority, as they say. It may resemble something like 250-300 given its misgivings of late.

    The Tories may fair better than Sunak because of a renewed ‘look’ and appeal, but it’s unlikely to bounce back high above the 121 under Rishi Sunak, so maybe 175-200.

    The Liberal Democrats have done well to make a resurgence in the polls to a respectable number, but its policy hasn’t yet come through yet, and so perhaps 50-65 seats.

    Reform UK are on the up and likewise feel buoyant, but if it’s an enthusiasm worth winning on I’m not sure. I suggest a more reasonable 50 is a fair share at present.

    It’s left to the Greens, Scots, and Independent’s to fill up whatever’s left, so around 60-80 seats in my view. It’s not a huge result, but it helps to include everyone else.

  • Reform’s win is businesslike

    Reform UK stormed the polls overnight to win four seats in the English Parliament.

    As expected the response has been mixed.

    The television crews have responded in usual surprise that Reform are able to achieve anything at all.

    At a press conference early this afternoon, Nigel Farage was put down by pundits as hecklers interrupted over the course of minutes.

    However, their success is more businesslike than controversialist.

    Their three ‘big hitters’ – Richard Tice, Lee Anderson, and Nigel Farage himself – each won a seat as well as a fourth candidate, Rupert Lowe, in the Great Yarmouth constituency.

    Their wins are straightforward.

    They wanted their key members to win out in their first real chance at Parliamentary glory. In fact, they secured an historic ‘first’ within the party and got all three through the gate.

    The naysayers in the television studios were discrediting Farage – again – as a racist and far-right agitator but were caught out. This time it’s Reform’s day in the sun.

  • What’s the mood in Scotland?

    The weather isn’t the only difference north of the border.

    Scotland has a different set of priorities in mind but what is the real mood of the people?

    It’s fair to say Scotland works by a different calendar.

    There are separate celebrations and different traditions that bring forward or set back particular things.

    However it has to abide by the date of a general election. This year it falls in Royal Week and members of the Royal Family have already visited Scotland this week to celebrate its history and culture.

    It’s also the 900 year anniversary of St Giles Cathedral – an important seat in religion in Edinburgh and Scotland at large – and it’s a milestone in Scottish life and worship.

    The timing of a general election couldn’t be more apt especially because of dreams of independence.

    Yet this isn’t a referendum so it’s back to basics when it comes to thinking about this election.

    In general the feeling is Scotland is ready for change but it depends on what it is.

    If life is largely the same it’s ok, but the reality is politics can bring with it a tinge of regret than only Scot’s will feel if it doesn’t go to plan.

    Mainly because it’s only they who will suffer if it does.

  • Will social media win the war?

    The election is underway. Campaigns have kicked off and Sunak and Starmer are busy talking to the people (as politicians usually do).

    What’s different about these elections is that, now, “social media” can play its role in sharing, spreading and highlighting a politician’s message.

    This happens all the time in elections overseas and the UK is no different. In-between our ‘prime time’ election events there’s plenty of fodder to be found on social media sites like Facebook and X.

    These are major go-to platforms for social debate, sometimes uncivil disagreement, and thread-by-thread debate – and it can get interesting. There are other platforms too, like Discord and YouTube, but these aren’t used in the media and so their cultural relevance isn’t as high.

    The online world is abuzz with activity most days and it’s worth looking out for what people are posting. It may be a candidate is recorded on the campaign trail (or off), and something else happens that sets them in a whole new light.

    It’s still a choice, though, and as the ballot box date approaches it’s worth checking out someone else’s opinion even if it is online and they insist it’s a shoo-in for the Monster Raving Loony Party.

  • What will they vote on?

    According to a YouGov poll taken on 20 May 2024, 69% of people said they disapproved of the Government, against 15% who said they approved.

    It’s a shockingly poor statistic for a Prime Minister who’s tried hard to remain in power for a reason, from proposals on AI to his own Rwanda plan.

    It hasn’t worked, however, according to any plan that may have been devised by strategists in Number 10.

    This stat is a poor reflection of a Prime Minister as he goes into battle on election day on 4 July.

    Indeed, it’s also something which Sir Keir Starmer – his only opposition – can use to his own advantage, as he also fights a campaign.