Geopolitics

  • Iran is at the front in its own ambitions

    The Supreme Leader of Iran is known as being unpretentious but able to react quickly. He’s not slow in thought, in other words, but neither is he showy in his actions. His leadership credentials are therefore obvious for such a nation as Iran, but his qualities need proving first.

    In his ‘first’ message to Iranians – and therefore the world – his sentiments are deep. He sees Iran as a nation in need of saving from America, the “Great Satan” that has more charm than bite, but has admittedly made an attempt recently. He’s undeterred, believing his subjects will fight with him until the end if necessary.

    He’s also playing the same game as America, toying with the Strait of Hormuz as if it really matters, which the US President has also done, but also with eccentricity. Iran, likewise, has put out social media videos mocking America using a popular toy. If the same tactic is in use, it shows the Strait doesn’t really matter.

    Mojtaba is a new leader on an old landscape, and he has to repeat lines that he’s inherited there. But maybe he sees things differently, and will vary from his late father’s vision. He’s more interested in the finer detail than ballistic ambitions, and developments will come inwardly, not with the same outward focus.

  • Iran has divides that cannot be overcome

    Iran is usually spoken of as being one single and whole country. While this is true – and is useful in a business sense – in terms of its leadership this couldn’t be further from the truth. It’s the belief of many academics that there are artificial divisions that are somehow run through Iranian society to keep people separate.

    These were built up by its former Supreme Leader and is believed to be a large part of the inheritance of the new Supreme Leader, who has to manage this new status quo.

    It’s likely these lines are obvious and that many people are aware it involves more than stating facts and enforcing it by Policing. This means that while some countries have sought to develop upward, Iran has moved to press outwards. It follows in a long period of overtly proud planning and behaviour.

    This causes Iran to be an increasing mystery on the world stage. As a State in the Middle East that’s choosing to be ever more introverted in its way of politics and life, it presents a threat through not being understood, but this is now built-in to its approach to being both a country and a regional power.

    The challenge from outside to Iranian leadership is therefore not seen as being relevant. It’s also more and more difficult to challenge a human rights record where their social setup is fragmented in such a way to make it difficult to know who is responsible and how life works there.

    Their opinions are probably going to be singular but their action is not going to be as predictable as we’d like it to be. It’s also not a forgone conclusion what Iran wants or what more they want to achieve.