International Relations

  • It’s unlikely Iran will come knocking on our door

    Mojtaba Khamenei is not a foe of the UK and his country is unlikely to become an active adversary of ours. It’s more of a case of Iran seeking to assert itself in the normal ways than any special escalation of tensions.

    This sometimes can be hard, and it takes up resources because large country’s need plenty of room in both a literal and figurative sense. But it’s not an indication of a large problem that would cripple us if we didn’t sufficiently respond to it in kind.

    In response to an issue with a region making trouble before, Khamenei is reported to have said, “It can’t do anything wrong and so we leave it to go wild.” It’s been interpreted to mean he sees potential and proximity as threats, not simply the existence of others and life’s consequences.

  • Iran rarely strikes at the middle ground

    Iran isn’t known for being a friend of many nations across the world. It hasn’t got a collegiate tradition or an evangelical culture in either its schools of preparation or in its fields of play.

    It makes it a hard country to understand, and many fail at this as they try by themselves.

    In actual fact, nations must engage and coordinate to find common understanding between each other, and in this scheme of things Iran has few partners and all of these are regional.

    “Friendly and brotherly nations find each other in hard times, and the deeper the civilizational roots, the stronger this bond.”

    – President Masoud Pezeshkian/X.

    It also guards such relationships closely. Many top level officials concede that instead of extending a hand of friendship, they prefer to come out swinging.

    If a new partnership is suggested that is too meaningful in some way, to begin with, they respond in the opposite sense.

    America hasn’t got a lot of rope to use, and we definitely shouldn’t try either. The rest is internal, and many hope the matters are resolved by Iranians capable of guiding matters by themselves.

  • North Korea charges into the future

    The State of North Korea has its downsides, but in recent times it’s improved its fortunes – to the benefit of the people.

    This hasn’t come without a price that isn’t money. The toil of the North Korean people is perhaps its most notable feature, and a characteristic that goes into most news reporting.

    It’s because of this the build up of infrastructure in the state itself is now becoming more of a point of interest to people further afield than before.

    There is a sense that there must be more than meets the eye. This is confirmed by less ballistic public relations exercises by its ruling leadership that have challenged international narratives of late.

    The few failures in its military domain have not overshadowed the belief that it’s rising to present a modern threat that has been long in the making.

  • Russia’s fortunes lie ahead of itself

    The Russia of today is meaningfully a different place to the one that it was before in the Soviet Union, but it’s still got a long way to go if it’s to understand itself and to change its own ways.

    This is clear in its current trajectory, which is a futile, shameful conflict that doesn’t make sense to international observers and can’t be if it’s the means of a decline of a legitimate European democracy.

    Its ideas need working on, and this notion is coming through in its familiar refrain that still heats up discussions, leading to tensions.

    It believes it can return to old lands. It can resume old ways. It isn’t practical, but it’s a temptation to do more than is required of itself.

    It’s believed that Russia previously toyed with an idea of pushing back with a counter-invasion against Hitler in the Second World War.

    This is not the unfolding of it as it was, but it’s a completely separate idea to the one that’s in our school history textbooks.

    It was apparently based off a concept called “Popular Will”, or a study in the way people welcome particular outcomes if their leaders look familiar, or have ways and modes similar to theirs.

    This isn’t the truth, but it’s thought to be a problem in Russian trains of thought. It comes up – often by surprise – because it’s more of a feeling than a reality.

    The update to Russian thinking is to realise that it has limits to its acceptability elsewhere. It isn’t pride that’s a problem, but a restraint on its endeavour to move outward.

  • The US & UK can still stick together

    The UK and the US is unlikely to be a partnership that doesn’t last. This may not be the assumption that follows a reading of its National Security Strategy published last month. It reads as a sort of guide to American worries at home and its concerns abroad. This isn’t the ethic of the document at all.

    The US & UK have an arrangement whereby we support each other’s wellbeing, and this arrangement has lasted for a long time. It’s built into our respective security infrastructure, so it means we won’t nuke each other, at least. It’s also written into all our peace agreements, and other documents besides.

    This is what people know if they study the arrangements and are able to look at the data. It’s not just out there because some public domain information is able to be litigated out of reality. This means it’s unsafe because the wording doesn’t hold together, or hold true. The fact of it helps us to survive here, and may even help us to thrive.

  • Like most States, North Korea is still trying

    In some sense the embattled state of North Korea is still trying to flex its muscles as it pursues the same policy of might over right. It doesn’t want to engage South Korea in much meaningful dialogue and so it looks to itself and the future for inspiration.

    This is how States are doing it right now. They’re managing their own affairs much better than handling the matters that occur elsewhere.

    It’s not cowardice at who’s in the world but a closer focus on each persons place in it. If new strength leads to new prowess, the old times of direct conflict may return.

    North Korea, meanwhile, is seeking to lead itself into a new place. It’s not necessarily built on weaponry alone, and even though there’s a lot to those rumours, there’s more to be fathomed elsewhere.

    It’s believed the State now allows citizens a level of personal responsibility beyond its former limited remit.

    This means, mainly, education is improving and at a rate in consideration of access to literature and freedoms we associate with a free mind.

    However, it’s a North Korean’s new duty to think about it rather than just admire its beauty or its art. It’s an intellectual revolution over a technical revolution, if we’re to think in those terms.

    This doesn’t change the state of affairs internationally, but it helps us to understand what’s going on meanwhile, and maybe apprehend reactions a lot better.

  • Exclusive: Iran’s Supreme Leader in hot water

    Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, has been accused of state interference and is requested to attend a meeting in London with UK law enforcement.

    It’s believed the accusations relate to attempts by Iran-based forces – such as its existing Revolutionary Guard – and other secretive groups to harass UK-based public figures.

  • Putin doesn’t seek nuclear war

    Putin isn’t minded to start a nuclear war or to end a war by nuclear means. It’s not that Russia doesn’t have this capability. It does. It’s just it doesn’t fit right now in the mindset of the man who leads a powerful country. It isn’t part of his reconstructive plan for the former Soviet Union, or a part of a future that he can envisage.

    In a private meeting in London many years back, Putin is reported to have said about the use of nuclear weapons, “The truth is, it’s too simple.” This indicates a willingness to explore politics – or, his Presidency – as a means to an end. He believes more in the power of an office than a flick of a switch. It says more of Russia than annihilation.

    In reality, he doesn’t see things this way aside from the nuclear option. His country chooses simple options all the time. It’s simpler to elect him by rigging the system than campaigning on a platform of integrity. It’s more straightforward to invade Ukraine than to dialogue until a resolution is met. It’s easier to threaten the West than to talk to us and build trust over time.

    He may be telling the truth by saying a nuclear strike is too simple. Yet he isn’t as clear in many other matters. It’s not an unlawful use of ultimate firepower that most people should fear, but a dedicated assault on material and mental integrity as his soldiers battle on. His takeover is not in the domain of victory, but in space and time itself.

  • Russia’s war shows it lacks clarity

    Russia’s war is something to behold in these current, modern times. It’s not easy to understand, but this is where Russia comes in. Most of Russian life and history has been difficult to decipher for many people.

    It’s pursued a policy of intimidation for too long. It’s led to a thinning of relations and a cultural ‘drift’ that’s resulted in much misunderstanding. It hasn’t necessarily stopped interchange, but at this point the story is bare.

    There’s a thin line of interaction and no further. The results of failed diplomacy and broken attempts to reach out across a divide shows it. It’s also indicated in sparse news reporting. It’s a legacy of distrust that’s lasted for decades.

  • Russia puts the UK on notice

    The deteriorating state of affairs here over who poses what threat to us is made worse now by a statement from the Director of Russia’s FSB, Alexander Bortnikov.

    According to TASS, a Russian news network, Bortnikov called out recent comments by Sir Richard Moore regarding the defection of Russian citizens to MI6 to serve the interests of the UK.

    “Mr. Moore is perhaps aware of what such calls may imply, given the problems in politics, the economy and society facing England itself and numerous ill-wishers of the British empire.”

    This is bad news for the UK. It’s because we rely on good things being said about us by foreign states. The fact this has been declared means that we may have more problems in future.

    However, the comments are purely one-sided. Russia itself is a broken up federation of former Soviet states. It suffers strongly with riddled crime and other inhumanities that Russians can’t overcome.

    They barely get any help. Putin’s authoritarian leadership structure is largely impervious to complaints. It puts out wise words to the Russian people but it doesn’t back these up with firm action.

  • Gaza needs to learn patience

    The situation in Gaza is no doubt intolerable but the fledgling territory needs to learn patience. It’s not about to get a state. It’s not about to have an economy that prospers it. It won’t have budgets that make for a good life in the short term. The notion these things are given is flawed.

    The fact is however the people there are able to help out. They can stop their support for terrorism wherever they provide it. They can separate fact from fiction to help international observers. They can plan for their own future while helping others to make moves toward their own.

  • Exclusive: UN still lacks critical infrastructure

    The UN has now published a report slamming Israel for its military action in Gaza. However, it hasn’t acknowledged rumours that it’s presently still under special measures put on it by the international community.

    This has come about because of extensive infiltration of its work. The rules of its special measures means that it can’t engage directly with children in some parts of the world. It can’t handle funds implicitly for some reasons. It cannot investigate in highly sensitive sites.

    The perpetual damning of Israel has raised concerns that the international governance body is struggling to maintain a grip over its communications. It’s also believed that many lower level staff lack managerial oversight.

  • Putin’s plan is wrong

    Russia is wrong. Putin is selfish. He’s invading sovereign territory. His views are old fashioned. His motive is not crystal clear. He wants to rule a democratic nation. He wants to bait Europe at its doorstep. He’s looking for fights.

    His map is wrong. He doesn’t see the spread of freedom. He doesn’t value elections. He doesn’t regard new parties. He doesn’t note changes in societies. He ignores all this for his own agenda. It’s a poor vision of a dark future.

  • If China wants a new embassy, who cares?!

    The Chinese state is said to be looking for a site for an embassy in London, to replace a smaller building. It’s not a minor ambition to have here. If it seeks to follow in the footsteps of the US, after its move to Nine Elms, it’ll find itself in a much better position at a difficult time.

    It’s faced criticisms for not funding diplomatic missions fully, stopping short of providing resources to make a proper effort. This may be interpreted by some as laziness, or a lack of interest in the process. Its economic might may give the impression it doesn’t need to try.

    However, an embassy is a chance to impress yourself on an overseas ‘client’ state. It gives place – and purpose – to finding things in common. The exercise is diplomatic as it gives a taste or flavour to an experience of knowing each other, using soft power as the process.

    It’s also an outpost for your statecraft as it relates to other things. It may be promoting culture more broadly, providing services, or maintaining links that are usually difficult to keep going, like with monarchies. These are the things that embassy staff are able to do well.

  • Putin is firm in NY message

    Putin’s New Year message is a patriotic call, but only to his people. It strikes a defiant tone. He declares 2025 a year of protecting the “Fatherland”.

    Russia Today

    It’s not straightforward, though. Although he refers to Russia’s role in ending World War 2, he also believes President Zelenskyy is like Hitler.

    There’s no peace in his words. He says “everything is possible” if Russian’s work together. He doesn’t suggest a ceasefire. It’s a bleak winter still.