Middle East

  • Iran is patient for greater gains in the region

    The Middle East has been described as contradictory. Many feel it’s not easily understood. This has been found to be very true in political realms. While a handful of countries believe they have a good relationship with some leaders or even a particular country, they’re regularly proved to be mistaken.

    Everywhere you go there’s time for talking, but few real decisions are really made between their representatives and ours. It’s the culture of the region to reciprocate, even along serious lines. But these are not movements. They are indicators of political activity that’s paid little attention to by the real powerbrokers there.

    Iran is waiting, by example, for its resolve to reassert itself outwardly to those it knows. It wants the dust to settle quickly. This is to move ahead with its endeavours to be modern and yet stern people in a place where progress falters. Their leaders are honed in their skills across Muslim nations. The West just interferes in the entire process.

    The response to a killing of a Supreme Leader is going to start there, possibly by a denial of American presence in pretty much its whole sphere. Their pressure won’t rest heavily on affairs that aren’t its own. It’ll have to work with Israel to have any meaningful role for a long time to come. This will challenge its entire foreign policy.

    Most of all, Iranians want to live in prosperity. Its absence is put down to a rapid investment in infrastructure that doesn’t involve most of the people. The future is in need of revision so that more are involved in economic activity that matters to them. This is in line with aspirations in a region that has development clearly in its sights.

    The US may seek progress with its Board Of Peace, and other nations have their own agendas too, but Iran is a belligerent. It’s lasted by strong leadership and holding out against many enemies. The past cannot be erased quickly. It has a lot power, tools at its disposal, and a keen mind for its own safety.

  • Exclusive: MI6 closes down Gaza debate

    In an intervention by MI6, the UK’s only acknowledged overseas Intelligence body, the ‘Free Gaza’ debate, as it’s called, has been designated as a “Protected Issue” and therefore no longer open to further public scrutiny.

    “This is to safeguard critical infrastructure, persons, and personnel across the world,” it has said, in a private briefing.

    The change is not surprising. It takes into account the extent of destabilisation that such protest activity has incited for many years in the UK. It’s also heightened fears of attacks against UK embassy staff around the world.

  • Iran is at the front in its own ambitions

    The Supreme Leader of Iran is known as being unpretentious but able to react quickly. He’s not slow in thought, in other words, but neither is he showy in his actions. His leadership credentials are therefore obvious for such a nation as Iran, but his qualities need proving first.

    In his ‘first’ message to Iranians – and therefore the world – his sentiments are deep. He sees Iran as a nation in need of saving from America, the “Great Satan” that has more charm than bite, but has admittedly made an attempt recently. He’s undeterred, believing his subjects will fight with him until the end if necessary.

    He’s also playing the same game as America, toying with the Strait of Hormuz as if it really matters, which the US President has also done, but also with eccentricity. Iran, likewise, has put out social media videos mocking America using a popular toy. If the same tactic is in use, it shows the Strait doesn’t really matter.

    Mojtaba is a new leader on an old landscape, and he has to repeat lines that he’s inherited there. But maybe he sees things differently, and will vary from his late father’s vision. He’s more interested in the finer detail than ballistic ambitions, and developments will come inwardly, not with the same outward focus.

  • Caught: Iran embassy “terrorist”

    In a stunning exclusive for Conservative News Site, a suspect alleged of “terrorist” activities in London and elsewhere has now been spotted loitering in a prominent London rail station.

    He’s believed to have strong links to the Iranian embassy in London, providing security services and personnel help to those that work inside its confines.

    His presence in the capital is also said to be nefarious because of a reluctance to work with any security groups or Policing units, preferring anonymity or brief interactions without record.

  • As Iran settles, it’s back to business for the power

    Iran isn’t a powerhouse but just an influence in the region. It doesn’t have a secret apparatus like many States in the West. But in saying this, it does have systems that enable it to plan, prepare, and prioritise for a large population, the size of which it’s never acknowledged.

    It has a large service sector too, which is aligned to this goal and is ready, and willing, to fulfil aims and purposes. These aren’t militants but they are loyal, and staff bases for a burgeoning economy of control that marks Iranian life in obvious ways every single day.

    Russia is a large sponsor of its internal order, making recommendations for its remit and helping to decide on internal matters some aren’t privy to. This is a partnership that Iran can’t easily shake off. This means current times are crucial for the future of these two large powers.

    As talks are ongoing, Iran will deviate from such a Westward focus, and President Trump’s own turmoil will make some Iranian policymakers seek progress more urgently on home fronts. This is a space to watch for balance in the region, because Israel also looks to these facts for its longterm strategy.

  • World exclusive: Oct 7 “mastermind”

    In a world exclusive for Conservative News Site, the alleged “mastermind” of the Oct 7 attack on Israeli communities has been spotted in a central London location.

    A suspect
    A suspect alleged of acting as “mastermind” of the Oct 7 plot against Israel seen here in a central London location.

    She’s believed to have deep contacts in Gaza and also links into the West Bank, enabling her to plot attacks and receive information relevant to her terrorist aims.

    It’s not thought any UK financial institutions were involved, since her activity is believed to be facilitated across online wallets acting as digital intermediaries.

  • MI6 call on PM to retract pro-Gaza message

    MI6, the nation’s secret service, has hinted the Prime Minister should retract his Palestine statehood message in support of the UK’s position in the wider world.

    It’s believed his statement has destabilised overseas relations, and led to confusion about the progress of real work being done to assess realities apart from protest.

  • Tehran runs a closed statehood of many parts

    Tehran is known as both an exclusive and also oppressive place, meaning that it has an allure of being the most cultured experience of Iran, but also being the leadership centre of a country that is rarely understood, even by its own people.

    It’s also said to be a closely guarded place, with much of the infrastructure of the country in terms of its security focusing directly on this one place.

    While there are parts to Iran that are richly cultural and deeply welcoming, most of it is said to be under the control of a political, secular, and religious elite that forms in the capital under various titles.

    This is because its focus is on the population. There aren’t many ambitions for invasion in the region, and it’s believed internal security compromises have more to do with the groups that make up the ethnic and national identity.

    This closed statehood is thought by many to be a unique feature in the Middle East. It’s very different from States in the Western world. It doesn’t make sense to people who aren’t used to living in its reach, or have to work their way around its localities by following its rules.

  • Iran finds its feet in the interim for now

    Iranians have a lot to think over at the moment, and having just lost an iconic figure who played a large part in the meaning and purpose of its religious and political elite in Tehran, there’s a need for time to recover from such a momentous loss.

    Although some contest it’s not a big difference, and another has come to replace him, Ali Khamenei put more into his diary than a retiring professor of Islamic law might do, showing he had a real zeal for power that left a void in the short term.

    As Iranians find their feet in this new interim, a refreshed power structure will kick into action and will put on a much more updated show of leadership and strength than before. It will likely have more of an impact than we can imagine now.

    This is the changeover that Iranians had thought over, but had not planned for in such a way. They also have to keep in mind that Israel followed through on its main threat. Its biggest rival, having eliminated a Supreme Leader, is in a better position than previously.

    There’s no doubt that tensions are high and will remain so for a long time, but pragmatists have helped to stabilise Iran in recent times, and even if they’ve provoked doubt that not everyone really benefits from holding back from outright war, they may help to keep the peace.

  • Lebanon is a target Israel is counting on

    It’s been a long-held belief of many of Israel’s top military chiefs that Hezbollah – owned by Iran – stands in Israel’s way to lasting peace in the wider region.

    The terror network isn’t a peacemaker at all. It holds a grip in Lebanon that suppresses legitimate economic activity and stifles most of its development.

    The network is said to have been cored by the late Ali Khamenei, emptied of its founding doctrines and filled with his own ambition for the end of Israeli security.

    The calculated mentality of its fighters shows a drivenness to expel Jews from the Middle East, a strategic goal now held by Tehran’s political and social elite.

    The focus on its elimination is a military objective that may frighten some, but the daily reality of instability for all its citizens means Israel won’t let go.

  • An Iran war is a matter for Iranian people

    The implications of strikes on Iran are being considered across Western media cycles, and the output seems to be a concern about shipping and something on the cost of living. There’s clearly little to nothing there for evidence to use to back up a significant claim as to the meaning of why it’s happening. These are just things that confirm it’s real.

    The real story is one for the Iranian people, put there for their consideration over the lifecycle of a leader and what it means when other people are threatened. The lesson is sobering, as much as the loss of such an iconic leader is a shock. This must be the point at which thinking starts on its context, and purpose.

    The further escalation of hostilities is a decision that people make with their leader, albeit in Iran it may be a much smaller number that is involved in the process. This is set in the international framework as a necessary response if things are to get worse, or deteriorate into a conflict that runs until it ends, rather than when life stops totally.

    The upswell of support for the new Supreme Leader, or a wave of enrolment for local forces that offer the feeling of patriotism and a cause worth being martyred for, is set in the nervous system of the State of Iran, emerging if it feels compelling and worth doing so. This is also their side of the story, and not ours.

  • Israel has shown self-determination is the key to survival

    The 2005 Gaza Disengagement stunned onlookers across the world as Israeli’s removed Israeli’s from parts of the Gaza Strip, thereby giving Hamas full and total control of a significant piece of land and preparing the ground for its renewed attempts to undermine Israel’s national security.

    It didn’t make sense, from other places, but Israeli leaders contested that it maintained its own position by making such concessions. The belief that people in Gaza would lead fruitless lives afterward is a truth that should concern the single-minded who follow such turns of events to blame Israel.

    The chronicling of the next steps in the Israel-Gaza dialogue is perhaps best epitomised by Hamas’ suicidal incursion into Israel in October 2023, but relations had completely deteriorated far before then. The terror group had already pursued a policy of radio silence, instead arming up and preparing its quasi-police state for a would-be assault that would end in chaos.

    The key to Israel’s existence has long been thought to be self-determination, a basis that is found in policymaking circles across the world. It has a basic instinct however that it wears on its sleeve, also showing it to the world in complete clarity. The fight isn’t nominal. It has the most desperate enemy at its doors, constantly vying for attention, so one misstep is its chance.

    The one effort that led to the resettling of thousands of Israeli’s didn’t grant the ‘freedom’ that crowds chant for at the doors of our Parliament, and at the feet of many more. It helped one country survive because the pressures were enormous, and engaged not a few hardened souls that had believed Israel would never do such a thing. The rest of it is history.

    In forging a future, the Jerusalem power base that forms Israel’s best chance at success is handling matters by how they unfold. The chances are slim for many in Gaza who don’t get the help they need to make Hamas surrender. It would mean they live freely, independently, and with choices ahead of them. This side of the story is incomplete.

  • Khamenei’s leadership is gone with the wind

    Ali Khamenei was driven more by a personal philosophy than was reported in his lifetime, showing that hot political topics are more likely to overshadow prescient points until the details are able to come through. To understand his life is an effort to get to grips with how he saw things everyday, because what he created in Iran is the state it’s in today.

    The nerve centre of his operation is said to have been a planning committee that functioned as his active core. It had the business of preserving the national heritage of the Persian power while building on it with modern innovations. This was to keep the status quo active for as long as his regime was going. It defined his philosophy of being while doing, illustrated by a fusion of religion and modern duties.

    This focus on deliberation actually leaves much of it as a mystery, maybe preserved or maybe having disappeared with his life, because the meetings were kept private. It has a similarity to the meetings that happen between high level personnel, but Khamenei wanted his leadership to be at the crux of what it was about, and so limited its coverage by military secrecy. He defined an era of modern Iran and his leadership cannot easily be forgotten.

  • What Balfour meant matters now more than ever

    In the text of his letter, Arthur Balfour, a former Prime Minister and then Foreign Secretary, managed to epitomise a position on homeland and identity that stands to this day. In recognition that at least a social coexistence was possible, starting with a Jewish nation and the preservation of non-Jewish rights in practice, he sent a clear message to its recipient that he and his country could see a way ahead for justice and historical restitution.

    “His Majesty’s Government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.”

    – Arthur James Balfour/Balfour Declaration/1917.

    It’s now believed that this letter setup a real effort to make a genuine place for Jews. They didn’t have one before it, and such an indication from a powerful State meant that a powerless people had a voice again. It also ensured a path to self-determination, giving a unique people group a way do it that didn’t involve the response of the sponsor nation. The rest is history, showing it’s possible for once.

    The ethic involved is lost on those that don’t see planning as an important part of foreign policy. Britain as it was wouldn’t stand in the way. It also had no desire to see anyone else block it either. But a lack of moral backbone is now in international realms, as Israel finds no response among many nations to its claim Hamas is a terror group at war with it constantly. This threatens its state of affairs.

  • Iran has divides that cannot be overcome

    Iran is usually spoken of as being one single and whole country. While this is true – and is useful in a business sense – in terms of its leadership this couldn’t be further from the truth. It’s the belief of many academics that there are artificial divisions that are somehow run through Iranian society to keep people separate.

    These were built up by its former Supreme Leader and is believed to be a large part of the inheritance of the new Supreme Leader, who has to manage this new status quo.

    It’s likely these lines are obvious and that many people are aware it involves more than stating facts and enforcing it by Policing. This means that while some countries have sought to develop upward, Iran has moved to press outwards. It follows in a long period of overtly proud planning and behaviour.

    This causes Iran to be an increasing mystery on the world stage. As a State in the Middle East that’s choosing to be ever more introverted in its way of politics and life, it presents a threat through not being understood, but this is now built-in to its approach to being both a country and a regional power.

    The challenge from outside to Iranian leadership is therefore not seen as being relevant. It’s also more and more difficult to challenge a human rights record where their social setup is fragmented in such a way to make it difficult to know who is responsible and how life works there.

    Their opinions are probably going to be singular but their action is not going to be as predictable as we’d like it to be. It’s also not a forgone conclusion what Iran wants or what more they want to achieve.