The Prime Minister is said to be on his way out. This means leaders in waiting are jostling for a position that probably won’t go to Andy Burnham MP (Makerfield/Labour) now, because the opportunity has opened up.
How things unfold depends on where the Labour party thinks it is. A landslide win hasn’t shored up public support for Sir Keir Starmer in the way he felt it might. This brings a concern that, internally, things are not holding up to scrutiny.
What sort of party discipline is needed may determine the outcome of a leadership race.
Starmer is determined, believing he has the real platform. He’s a moralistic, minded man in private and while this doesn’t translate into lectures, he appeals to the faithful by making clear decisions by it. His next move will communicate his support or denial of Labour party values, proving if he’s still their man in Number 10, or if he’s gone soft.
Next, there are potential candidates for a takeover that would scandalise the political world.
Yvette Cooper MP (Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley/Labour) is a clear contender for first female Labour Prime Minister, but she’s at a distance from Number 10. Her brief, usually, sends her out and doesn’t keep her as close to domestic issues as people believe. If this is a positive or negative for party strategists is entirely their own calculation.
Dan Jarvis MP (Barnsley North/Labour) is a clear winner for internal ideologues, and some external support bases. He represents a white male reality, though, and this may lead to further problems. Labour doesn’t want their radical roots to be a problem-maker for their chances in central government.
Finally, Shabana Mahmood MP (Birmingham Ladywood/Labour) as Home Secretary has backed key new reforms to Policing, putting her out there as a favoured candidate for those following the madness at home everywhere. While Muslim and keen on security and social issues, her stance may aggravate yet more unnecessary debate. It’s a risk the party may take into account.
The reality is that the Prime Minister has said nothing, so we have to wait for a clear indication.
The party itself is nursing a large majority in the Commons, and believes it has ideas that can last it a while longer in the difficult and unpredictable world of the Civil Service. The renewed push of Starmer or the refreshing zeal of a new leader will be their hope for more gains while in power.

