Russia-Ukraine War

  • Russia’s economic suicide is now almost certain

    As much as Moscow has a firm grip on things, it cannot determine or foretell the future. It cannot pull the strings of the Universe to manipulate forces beyond us. This puts it in the realm of unknowing when it comes to economic success.

    As dark clouds rose over St. Petersburg – caused by Ukrainian drones – earlier this week, an economic event attended by President Putin in the same city got the warning. They understood that perfection had not come about by waging an illegal war.

    It’s the same with its economic situation. At some point, the pipes may burst, systems blow, and software meltdown. It’s an analogy, but Russia is a complex thing too. The fact is stuff goes wrong even as you think you’re correct.

    The signs are Russia has problems afoot, but these are said to not surface until much later. Events may catch up, lead to crisis after crisis, and end the modern Russian enterprise as it is. Putin will then have more on his hands than a high frontline fatality rate.

  • Russia is a fortress not easy to handle

    In preparing for the war in Ukraine, Russian forces completed a number of strategic planning objectives, even before the first bullet, bomb, or drone was fired.

    It’s rumoured it included plotting how to liberate a secret military base it had housed on an estate in the Kursk Oblast, where President Putin may have spent time planning the offensive.

    The border region is hotly contested by Intelligence services because of its potential. It’s used for smuggling contacts, making rendezvous, and sneaking into either territory to begin extensive spying operations.

    Unverified footage of a firefight near to Maryino Estate, in Rylsky District, Kursk Oblast (Credit/Source: @wars_russia/Telegram).

    Russia keeps itself relatively still in normal times, meaning it has strength in staying power. The effort to dismantle a military outpost – setup for the President – would involve military action to disburse surveillance-based interest in the area.

    The return of the President to Moscow isn’t a momentous day, but it would mark an achievement in military planning. Putin often talks about Ukraine and says he has a “sense of the air” of it, meaning his close watches involves more than monitoring CCTV footage.

  • Peace is better than Russia’s paranoia

    If President Putin believes he can hide the reason for his war, he will have to think again. It’s a well-documented event, now, that makes perfect sense on paper. His problem is that it will harm Russia’s progress in every other way.

    Alexander Dugin, the Russian philosopher said to have spent time with Putin, is forthright in his own way about matters. His lecturing on Russia’s history and values is respected in his homeland and has some plaudits overseas.

    “Russia was never fully colonised by the West. We resisted through all our history. We will do the same until the end of time. The West wants to annihilate us. We want just to limit its ambitions. And preserve our sovereignty and freedom. Our victory doesn’t mean the end of West.”

    – Alexander Dugin/X.

    He’s recognisably Russian in every single way, emphasising his nationalist values with a verve only patriots have. The notion of demise is wholly rejected at the core of his thesis, and is in fact his main point as he argues his life’s work.

    In Russia, the fear of failure looms large at the highest level of politics and everything the West does is looked at with suspicion, bordering on paranoia, because economic and social dynamism is a threat to its devotion to its own future.

    The invasion of Ukrainian land adds to the complexity of Russia’s reach into Europe – and beyond. More people would be in range. More trouble would result out of it later. It’s not a prospect that can be ‘offered’ to a nation that would use it to press harder against us.

  • Ukraine has to bulk up its attempts at war

    Ukraine is finding its feet on its own in a challenging situation, but drone strikes alone are seen as a weak effort overall by people who look on warfare as a means to an end. They advocate for a consistent measure against an adversary, one that prioritises quick wins and an even more efficient finish.

    A cartoon graphic
    A cartoon graphic depicting President Zelenskyy asking for drones by a smart speaker device (Credit: Canva/Original prompt).

    Putin is clearly not quaking in his boots, even if he shakes his head in a sort of parental disapproval. His dismay over a strike on St Petersburg is not an overpowering feeling for a man who is as easily dissatisfied by matters he looks for in his armed forces by himself.

    The peacemakers want all arms dropped and for both sides to shake hands. This isn’t going to happen, and more needs to be supplied to Ukraine to continue a push to fight Russia back and to contain it inside its own territory once more. This means heavier impact by much more powerful attack strategies.

  • Putin risks stability if his war runs on too long

    Russian nationals are aware of the significance of a high casualty loss, in terms of the implications it has on preparedness at the frontline. While their way of fighting is not going to be fully understood, it’s believed to consist of a sort of human resourcing that pays particular attention to people and their skillsets.

    A cartoon
    A cartoon of an advisor speaking across a table to President Putin in his office (Credit: OpenAI ChatGPT/Original).

    Putin tends to keep things in perspective, and so in this regard he may have limited such ‘resources’ only to necessary people. It’s to maximise the availability of the war-ready, or, to minimise a reliance on a small number of the highly expert or technically skilled.

    Russians are taught to be aware of trouble with their senses, too, and a President is known to be time-limited in this respect. The feeling may be to give up on some targets, show Ukraine raw might, and look for wins in other ways. This change of position could lead to Russia’s favourable end to its own war.

  • In Russia, Putin inspires belief at least

    The Russian ‘system’ is not studied by the West, in large measure because of a focus on Journalism and its effects on opposition politics, but also because Russia is seen as backward and broken. There may be another excuse. If Putin had any finer grip on power, it might spook people completely.

    The word is that his ‘system’ is fast becoming the set standard for those that understand Russian leadership, and in particular have a share in the Kremlin’s overall power structures.

    “His leadership has come at a time when Russia can be shaped,” a dissident said to me, looking scared. “It’s how he rules – and how they see it – that matters,” he concluded, falling silent.

    That Putin feels in control is down to his own mastery. Few could do it, considering the hints and tips that are sent out from time to time. He’s characterised as running a newsroom, military command control centre, and a boardroom all at one time.

    The task is unimaginable to us because Russians want something different. The best efforts of Europeans to convince otherwise have failed, reflected on by looking to our own chaotic structures.

    As he feeds in his ideas, Putin is the President of Russia. This is how it’s seen. “If there’s no Putin, there’s no leader,” a proud Russian national said to me, “you know that – with your newspapers!” His point is that we seem to thrive off a bad man in Russia to understand our part of the world – this part of Europe – as much as he knows the strength of the Kremlin on his life.

    Russia’s war is faltering. Maybe Russians will assume their leader has run out of ideas. They don’t think in terms of land grabs unless they’re told to, but they do believe their armed forces will achieve everything they can before such a reality comes to pass for Russia.

  • Russia needs to smell the coffee

    Putin may be feeling rough right now for good reason. His war in Ukraine is stalling, providing few signals of hope for the Russian leader. It looks like a policy mistake from the ground up. Although Russians look to such matters as part of their unfolding narrative – seeing hardship perpetually in the past, and receding further behind them – it’s not easy to reclaim the moral high-ground on this one.

    The next move has to be a retreat and peacemaking agenda. Europe is resolved to see a cessation of hostilities through to completion. It cannot fathom ‘giving up’ a potential EU member for the simple goal of placating Moscow’s disgruntled military chiefs. There’s no charity involved in its diplomacy at present, either. It’s short thrift for anyone seeking to confuse matters on the ground.

    The Russian President has an outlook that’s different, however, and as far as his statements on Ukraine have been insulting so far, his next will be criticisms of its future. He has a way of seeing everything from a strictly nationalistic perspective, and it never runs dry. We only have to wait for his pontifications because the script is written for him. His feeling of dominance looms larger than any call for compromise.

  • Russia looks to UK financial corruption for rebuke

    The State of Russia has pointed to Parliament’s use of cryptocurrency to pick holes in new sanctions revealed recently by the Government in response to its war.

    Alleging the use of “dark networks” by MPs in a post to Telegram, the Russian Embassy also rejected the measure as “futile” on X, stating it won’t deter Russia from its course of action in Ukraine.

    “It is noteworthy that the UK authorities accuse others of using “shadow financial systems”. At the same time, they turn a blind eye to generous cryptocurrency donations finding their way into the pockets of the British political class. Perhaps the fight against “dark networks” should begin in Westminster rather than in Bishkek or Tbilisi.”

    – Russian Embassy/Telegram.

    In recent years Russian media networks have researched political life in the UK extensively. They’re alleged to hold large files on individual journalists.

    It’s said by MI5 sources to explain some of Russia’s taunts. The veracity of its claims haven’t been confirmed, but it believes most MP’s have stolen cryptocurrency and hide it in offshore wallets.