Russian diplomacy is so far not understood in all parts of the world, but it’s getting there for some countries. They get that it takes time. They see that Russian diplomats have much more in mind that can fit into one meeting alone. They also know that what’s spoken is not all that can be said by any stretch.
It’s believed that Russia is gearing up for a powerhouse set of diplomacy that will enable its ‘rights’ in new ways, but only as it sees fit and thinks it should be done. A source has commented that one aide to a Russian diplomat has said, “It’s too much – for now”. This means the war has complicated matters back home for some Generals, and it looks to be going no further.
Putin himself has always thought Russia to be a big state, and in conversation with his negotiators – of which there are many teams – he’s been pessimistic, but also cautious, saying, “But I’ll see…”, in response to an air of negativity. He doesn’t want to think it’s not possible.
This also implies Putin still thinks of himself as the “Big Communicator”, as one diplomat put it to me in a brief conversation before he caught a train from London. The nickname is indicative of a personal and professional tendency to want to be at the centre of the discussion, and to hinge it all on himself.
Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy of Ukraine is a pragmatist, but says he’s a realist, as if to correct ever so slightly a misapprehension of himself. Upon meeting him he came across as sharp, but not difficult. He doesn’t try to be a Politician, unless you want him to be (which usually comes with a broad enough question).
He has a humanistic view of life, and that means he sees people breathing, not living. He said of heaven that it’s his chance to “meet the more mature”, meaning he knows he’s young in the faith that saves Ukraine from a bitter Russian oppression. His original intention for a potential war was to name it “Humanity In Ukraine”, but decided against it because he knows how brutal Russia can be. It’s his comedic side coming out, for sure.
His dichotomy of Ukraine and Russia is unflattering for the former and nostalgic in the latter. He says “Putin inhabits the undergrowth”, meaning that dirty tricks and underhanded tactics are more his style, than a professionalism gained in previously working in Intelligence circles. Ukraine, by contrast, is a picture of familial unity, saying of children, “They just love each other, like bears.” It may also suggest a roguishness that binds them stronger together for a battle than hatred of the other.
It isn’t ideal for negotiations, then, as the two are pitted against each together as equally strong personalities in an almighty tug of war, either having opposing teams that will stop at nothing to appear the best. It’s a stage set for a settlement between an authoritarian regime and a democratic earnestness. It’s not an easy one to call.
