Ukraine Russia War

  • Drone strikes will galvanise Russia’s forces

    While Ukraine celebrates another successful air raid on Russia deep in its heartland, Russians will see smoke billowing through the sky as another reason to heed the warnings of their President. They will head to the frontline to defend their nation’s cause in defiance of this as a personal if not corporate mission.

    A video alleged to show the aftermath of a strike on an oil refinery close to central Moscow (Credit: @UkraineWarVideosEnglish/Telegram).

    The strikes on Moscow have only bolstered a resolve to keep on striking Ukraine, according to officials, who see such moves as grave violations of their national security, which is their primary motive for the war. Their modus operandi of escalation means matters will worsen still further.

    However, President Zelenskyy sees a way to break the Eastward war machine by systematically enhancing his own. The more often his Armed Forces penetrate defences in this way, the less likely Russia’s invasion will succeed in impressive ways. Putin will have to limit his ambition, and let his people down.

  • Zelenskyy urges Putin to peace talks

    President Zelenskyy of Ukraine has urged President Putin of Russia to peace talks in an open letter published yesterday. Its prose indicates confidence in Ukraine’s chances but scepticism of Russia’s integrity. Zelenskyy implies at length that most of the world is against its acts to violate the sovereignty of the democratic State of Ukraine.

  • Russia bleeds propaganda in its claim of Ukraine nazification

    President Putin’s offensive characterisation of the State of Ukraine as Nazi-inspired has taken on propaganda status. It’s repeated at the highest level, telling Russians to handle their closest enemy as people deluded by fascist hatred.

    A new document, made by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, even produces the argument in full.

    If this is how Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy is seen, it’s just another indication of the success of his leadership. He should take it as an affirmation of integrity. There’s hope for Ukraine if one President irks another in Russia.

  • Russia suffers the scars of an overbearing war

    Russia’s meagre Victory Day parade showed a much reduced military display. President Putin also looked pressed on all sides but one – his own. This is the last stand of what was meant to be a grand display of might. Albeit Russia has invested time and financial muscle into its new arrangements, Ukraine is proving to be a tough battle front.

    The weight of world diplomacy is on the side of the smaller in this David and Goliath struggle. But, agreements have to lead to arrangements that are acceptable far beyond the regions that have been closed in on by Russians. The balance of power is also tested and stretched in these moments, and much interest has to translate into effective planning and its flawless execution.

    Russia isn’t necessarily in as stable a position as it believes itself to be. The metrics suggest territorial integrity but gaps in its strategic approach may mean retrenchment is an option it has to choose soon. Kyiv is a willing aggressor if it feels pushed, and its forces haven’t been depleted as far as Russia would have hoped at this point. The only move now is a retreat for dignity’s own sake.

  • Ukraine needs to get regional backing first

    Ukraine has testy relations with its European neighbours, so say top officials in its diplomatic units and academics that train the next generation in its Universities at home. The galvanising force of anti-Russia hatred only goes so far as to make them ideologically aligned, but practical realities aren’t yet in synch to put on a strong front.

    Shots of Russian military activity posted to a Telegram channel in 2022 (Credit: @Russia_Ukraine9/Telegram).

    President Zelenskyy has a tough time ahead because his voters want Europe to emerge united after war and this means reaching out to leaders who even have arguments with themselves. Russia can hope that at least this falls apart if its war ambitions are diminished.

    Putin is a key contact for the disaffected, however, and his teams will seek to be disruptive in any prolonged negotiation period. They will pick up on existing tensions and try the patience of the well-meaning. In his view, a divided Europe is as much a win as Ukraine.

  • Russia seeks Moscow’s increasing greatness

    The constitution of Moscow’s armed forces is believed to be very different from even ten to fifteen years ago. There is also a political element that uses data control to support the Presidency. As such, it’s become a mightier entity for the Russian people than before.

    The stalled progress in Ukraine provides, therefore, an opportunity to assess such a bank-busting exercise in buildup and increase in overall strength capacity. But what the reaction will be has yet to find its way to the top. It may be delays in data transfer is to blame for it.

    The innovation of “New Ways” – reportedly the headline moniker for such a surge in investment in overall national security – has formed the main part of Putin’s drive for Russia’s modernisation. The rest will see the light of day in further Presidencies, providing scope for further gains in nationwide support.

    The return of data from the battlefield is just one insight into the mind of Russia’s news-aware populace today. The plethora of news outlets demonstrates how culture is updating to adapt to emerging realities. These are instituted at the top of political power structures to give the Kremlin leverage.

  • US and Russia have to make peace – or it’s war

    The belief in Russian diplomatic circles is that America remains a key global power even in its position at the other side of the Western world. While Russians think hard about their own progress, and note that most of human endeavour comes through difficulty, they also look to the success of others.

    In meeting Trump, Putin showed that this truly is a belief and that it underpins its objective view of how things need to be done. Even if the fight is against Ukraine, it ends at the doors of the White House.

    “Two Sides Of The Same West”
    Image credit: OpenAI ChatGPT.

    It may seem contradictory to some, but Russia regularly belittles its own neighbours. It can suffer having called America a great nation if it means others in Europe look lesser or the worse for it.

    The point is not going to be that Russia and America are best friends. Again, Russia is proud of its own progress and in this lies a hint as to its real worldview. The end of the war with Ukraine is looked at hopefully as being about peace. But this isn’t guaranteed. It needs a strong partner to make it happen. 

  • Putin came to power for his own reasons

    President Vladimir Putin had a lot of criticisms about Russia’s position in the world before he came to power for the first time. He understood most of the strategic necessities the State of Russia had, but was concerned too many “flimsy” ideas were being entered in the mainstream of military thinking. His position had been to clear all of it up.

    He speaks confidently about the conflict with Ukraine because it looks more straightforward to him. He noted conspiracy theories about the East of Europe that he didn’t think held water, and had privately said that with political power he would try to change this.

    Entering politics at the highest level in Moscow, he duly found out who the culprits were. In a bid for a different style of leadership, he chose to get rid of these powerful people rather than put a burden on the powerless in Russian communities. He’d straightened the way for a clear national policy.

    Russia’s war is about an interpretation of a power balance and its vision of peace, but only those who have studied the country will understand it. It’s not out of fear of a US President. It’s not even just for economic reasons. It includes details on the ground and some that are secret from us. In Putin’s mind this is a modern Russian era and there’s more to go for.

  • Russia seeks a tight control over its frontlines

    Russia is also a tightly controlled media space as well as closed State, and it acts as so during its military operations. The lack of substantial media footage available in the mainstream for use in the West is indicative of this fact. Russia won’t show the bulk of its frontlines and it won’t let you see its efforts to strengthen these.

    The Russian head of EMERCON and a popular Russian actor visit Russian positions (Source: @KremlinRussian/Telegram).

    The scant footage available shows individual soldiers dying by brutal wounds. There’s none of the proud wave of soldiers surging into Ukraine or units camping together to sit out a firefight. This is the Putin era of total lockdown. He fears the scrutiny of public media efforts here and looks to deny sights to replace seeing with believing his narrative.

  • Putin wants Ukraine to beg for future mercies

    The strategic position of Russia when it isn’t at war can also be a complicated matter for its neighbours in Europe. It’s felt by many of the leaders who have tried to build their own platforms but find their politics is quickly infiltrated by Russian agents. They gut the purpose out of the meaning to leave something worth working with.

    It makes the process feel hopeless for Eastern Europeans because it becomes a pointless exercise in a subversive diplomacy that’s one-sided, bereft of much of the national policies that energises patriots, and leaves a void of activity in the public sphere. This puts people to sleep and dampens out optimism.

    Russia is no doubt working on compromises for the Ukrainian’s as they both contemplate a future of peace without war. But Putin is not of a peaceful manner if it comes to normal, everyday business. He will be working out mercies as gifts for the people that have valiantly defended their homeland.

    This is not alone his way, but it’s the insult that Russian leaders make to those they feel should be subordinate to their ways, and culture. It’s part of the stinging reality of living where Russia predominates the narrative and public media is shouted down for being too loud. These contradictions are a part of lived reality.

    The innovations of Ukraine’s intellectual industries have punctured such an inevitability, but the progress of Russians in total is almost absolute. The soldiers may pull away, but Ukrainians know the citizenry is ready to resume its positions. They take up roles to put down all hopes of freedom.

  • We don’t always know what’s behind the frontlines

    The tricky subject matter involved in hostile warfare is the type of false leadership the aggressor intends to setup to occupy for the time afterwards.

    It’s not necessarily true that Adolf Hitler intended to rule over Europe himself. It may have been that he wanted others to govern in his place, and there is evidence to suggest he had been forming a formidable regime to take over once he had declared victory.

    The lack of a final day to his effort and the declaration of victory in Europe and further afield killed off such a plan.

    This is the grey area of war and it takes up the study of many intelligent planners who need to be aware about the realities of victory and defeat in real time in the modern world.

    It can sometimes be confusing because some warmongers have not necessarily taken control once they’ve achieved a sort of victory.

    In the case of Russia it’s not been proved who may take Putin’s place if it took Ukraine. In fact, his plan may be to just influence while he lets the country reshape itself.

    To understand the field of play in Europe takes expertise, and even historic battles are not yet fully resolved in their complexities because what people actually wanted to achieve isn’t clear.

  • Russia’s shows its war planning is a different exercise

    The worded statements emerging from the Kremlin’s closest allies usually exude a funny sort of calmness. But it actually belies a sustained, feigned attempt to appear confident on the international scene even as events unfold. In actual fact, it’s happened in a much different way. On the battlefield, it looks much less like how they had planned it to be in their planning rooms.

    In Russia, the progress of a major event like this is usually guided by such a constant feedback loop. Russians are used to picking up on volumes of information to retain a sense of awareness of what’s going on. If left unbroken, it helps to guide public opinion in the right direction. It benefits the powers that be because this is a model for a public relations strategy that they can use.

    The education in schools that supports the military elite is replete with the ideas that people should always have in mind. It doesn’t matter to begin with that casualty numbers rise, and later, it looks to be a sacrifice that can always be understood in context. In this way it confirms a bias that continues to drive forward the desire of Moscow’s leadership for total control.

  • Ukraine has shown its way with war – and it works

    The State of Ukraine is beating at the gates of a country that has a full appraisal of itself in many ways. Russia has left no time to waste in covering every corner of its territory, making sure that nothing is left as a mystery to itself.

    Such mastery of its own affairs is an achievement but it can only be respected by itself. The use of it, as well as the reputations of its schools of science and military affairs, draw disdain from many in the wider international community.

    Ukraine has developed its own innovations at a pace, making production a cornerstone of its defensive capabilities. To do this they’ve required the input of a large number of nations. This has come about in terms of finance and firepower, often keeping the enemy at bay at needful times.

    The progress of this war has been hard to follow, because it looks like a two-way fight, and precious few indicators show who’s responsible for what otherwise. We can guess the larger powers are making the most impact, but it’s left to others to tell the story about this.

    Yet, in the silence of these facts it’s become a war effort of promise because Ukraine is ready for the battle as it turns on itself. The people of Ukraine have shown a willingness to keep at the frontlines and trust in the promises of others. This is a noble spirit for all to see.

    The advancement of techniques in fighting has now cemented a new reaction to hostile efforts to takeover and to control. The political drive of Putin is a mania that adds complex toxicity to the battlefield, and modern technology handles this far better than human minds, which slow in the calculation of it.

    In our times there’s a sense of optimism that old styles of aggression that go after things not a part of our modern hopes are not all-encompassing – or inevitable. They can be repudiated in favour of a new arrangement, idea, or concept that keeps its own ground.

  • Ukraine’s safe option is to evacuate its border areas

    The progress of diplomacy is slow when it comes to the stubbornness of Russia. It’s been shown that it speeds up exponentially where there is a meaningful aim in sight and something can be gained from a continuation of the talks. It has to refer directly to something that has been stated before, even if it doesn’t fully realise it’s dream.

    In terms of the land that Russia wants to have in its own possession, Ukraine stands at a crossroads in its own decision-making. Its best option is to evacuate such areas and to maintain that nothing more than a small contingent should continue to live there. It gives Russia ground but deprives it of a further reach to limit closeness to Ukraine.

    The evacuation of people is not a popular option, but it could be satisfied in either direction. A non-contingency zone like this could be a solution to a battle between two powers, one that has moral argument and another that has sufficient strength to resist more.

    It may give Russians pride in saying that named places are ‘back’ in its own possession. However, it recognises that its own expansionism is an unpopular policy. It cannot take more to gain more in the long-term, and Ukraine has to be guaranteed its own internal security.

  • Putin sees the weakness in his own countrymen

    President Putin of Russia is a formidable leader because he has it all worked out. His predecessors did not, and Russia suffered periodic bouts of a loss of services because of it. He has offered continuity, but this is why his war confused his own people at first.

    A war now is seen as a break in transmission. It’s a skirmish, no matter the size of it. Therefore, the people of Russia at high levels question the need for any type of war, but this is his trick also. Putin knows that decisive movements create mystique.

    The current Ukraine-Russia war is a rebuke on the weaknesses Putin sees in his own military arrangements. This is a big theme in Russian life at the moment. The scrutiny of one’s own willingness to fight creates a fulcrum in itself. It’s hard to resist a desire to prove it now.

    The reluctance to war and to secure the State in other ways is believed to have led Putin to declare this outbreak. Ukraine suffers the assault of a nation trying to work out its own differences, and such fallout has led to the selfish combat that casts confusion over Russian affairs because Ukraine was at peace with itself before it.

    The loss of life is now stacking up on the Russian side, though, and Russians have to reckon with a demand to be more serious. The intellectual impasse is only broken by clever work. This is the political machinery that upholds Moscow’s control over everything. It’s this effort that signals the end, or a return of the region to peace.