Warfare

  • Iran pulls out of a civilisational war

    Iran has a unique sense of self but most of it is contrived according to a system setup to define Islam and govern Muslim behaviour.

    The last Supreme Leader invested heavily in its existence, but the new incumbent is said to be focused on its implementation in reality.

    This means stringent daily information and coordinated support for all meaningful internal structures.

    It also determines Mosque attendance and studies, and in particular in Islamic schools.

    It makes Iran to be a semi-closed, authoritarian state with a regime that keeps its leadership and intelligence structures at close quarters.

    Due to common Muslim affiliation, and a ban on secularisation, it isn’t as fully so like Russia, by example, but its effects go far enough.

    An end to military engagement, as is being enacted by its military leadership, is a return to a status of internal strife and division within itself.

    Even the Persian nation has intentions that may be sincere but aren’t always successful.

  • Iran wants revenge in the longterm

    The Supreme Leader has a prominent position in Iranian society, but current feelings are guided by emotions that come from sources far beyond his own. The felt need for revenge runs deep now and Iranians will no doubt be plotting for a long time to come.

    Their revenge will take the form of restrictions on civilian activity in the Middle East where Iran has a role to play; diplomacy limited to friendly states; and challenges to leadership that backed such a strike on the late Ali Khamenei.

    A broadcast by a TV channel in Iran about revenge for assassination (Credit: MEMRI TV/Original).

    In Iran there are also forces at play to destabilise world affairs, and in particular, to interfere in domestic political affairs. These are hard to track and have potential in places where people work against others to end their careers.

    In future, the likelihood of Iranian interference is particularly high in Washington, because America backed Israel to kill their Supreme Leader in the first place. This puts the Atlantic power on high alert. It also implicates the UK because of our special relationship there.

  • No time left for Russia to win

    It’s becoming clear that Russia has no time left on the battlefield. Its position is greatly depleted with no Wagner pulverising human life in its way. The drone strikes designed to ‘assassinate’ Ukrainian citizens are not only failing but are outpaced by reciprocal uses.

    Putin has to withdraw his forces, seeing as no firm line of victory has yet been marked out. Whatever the gains have been, these are small in comparison to the losses and failure of the overall plan.

    International will is for an end to fighting and a return to the negotiating table. There’s no clamour for a Russian victory. A lack of a clear rationale for such an outcome shows any signal of support has been insincere.

  • Iran is juggling priorities

    It’s widely rumoured in the Middle East that Iran has a particular preeminence for its specialist provision of security for Muslims as an almost exclusive service of coverage.

    This isn’t a simple arrangement of teams or security units to guard the richest businesspeople or to protect royal families of power.

    The point is that Muslims enjoy a level of safety due to a regard for their personal wellbeing apart from any other religious group and separate to any secular setting.

    It even raises a question about ‘halal’ security arrangements and how Western intelligence agencies support such a particular religious community.

    The divisions in Islam are a reason why Iran would have to do this. Iran shows an ability to protect its population while preserving distinctions for religious reasons.

    Iran also has a knack for staying out of local troubles and keeping its work above reproach. They are said to be praised for such endeavours by religious authorities.

    At this time, no doubt Iranians at higher levels are working hard to keep this fundamental arrangement alive. The premise of it is necessary for its influence and is just as important for its economy.

  • Russia disrupts the workplace

    The economic impact of wars is usually said to be disruptive to the pocket, but in reality there’s a long journey before it gets to that stage.

    In the workplace, professional supply chains are disrupted because coordination is lacking and information lacks coherence for a short while.

    In personal terms it means stresses and strains build and these are felt at your desk. The predicament is exacerbated by senior staff also lacking the resources they need to get help around quickly enough.

    The stopping and starting of resource flows is also a major hindrance to getting work done. It may also interfere with communication and work vectors slide.

    The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a big disruptor because both are mutually professional economies that feed into a global network of working and industry environments.

    Whilst on the battlefield there’s a necessary diversion of resources, this impacts update lines and leads to lag in knowhow for key decision makers and longterm strategists.

  • Long Report: Inside Gaza

    Gaza is in a poor state, according to most media observers that tell us what we should know. These self-serving ideologues are also self-loving idealists. They like a good bit of misinformation to pass on doubts and lies to get a ‘good position’ in New York, or a place like it.

    The drivenness of such individuals is entirely of their own making and amounts to a cult, now, that worships security breaches and puts demise at the top of its agenda.

    But this is falsehood, in our terms, and officially the matters they talk about are handled by our best and brightest as a national duty of concern. No overnight statement replaces the slow, considered, and behind the scenes work.

    The reality on the ground is a situation that people in Gaza are desperately crying out for attention over, not to get clicks or likes but because fake media has threatened their lives too many times.

    Real affairs

    The people in Gaza aren’t sure of who they are or where they are. This is the truth of it as people young and old have spoken to me in joy and in tears. They are so because resilience is natural but suffering is artificial, and it cuts in oftentimes.

    I’ve listened to the stories, though, and it has made me to stop and ponder life too. I’ve heard of similar acts here, but theirs sound relentless and crushing. The support is quiet and often it can seem too distant for human need. The protests worldwide make life feel unsafe.

    Hamas is the point that makes people in Gaza feel angry beyond any other sign of brokenness. They hate the sight and sound of its militants, and pray for deliverance from its proximity to their lives and their local communities. Their behaviour makes them feel hopeless.

    The buildings used for ‘normal’ activity at ground level but above the space is given over to torture chambers, cyber centres, and command control centres. The houses emptied for donor families of Hamas that are left in harms way later. The shops taken away and returned again with no word as to why.

    The chaos has confused children for a long time. Parents struggle to say what it is while Hamas and others are in their way. The limited infrastructure is a sign things can live there but it feels tenuous and ready to disappear like peace.

    Political things

    In small groups people have gathered to discuss politics in more Western ways but without the protest mantras or false doctrines. They’ve planned a future many times over and considered all options as fairly and as openly as they can.

    Children are now widely taught about democracy and the only resistance to it – in the form of local clerics – has fallen away to permit it to continue. The reality is that people in Gaza have inspired others in their tribulation. It counts as real change in the Middle East.

    Yet, the dog fighting in their familiar surrounds is unabated, and as much progress as Israel makes for itself, it’s inevitable Hamas is going to spring back into action. They don’t think their terrorism will end soon because it’s supported and they don’t have a way to fight back.

    Looking forward, the people in flight that I’ve spoken to are optimistic that builders, planners, and leaders will come out of the woodwork. They can’t say when, but that’s been the point of it all along. The chance of it occurring increases and decreases by itself all the time.

  • Ukraine has a mission to fulfil

    Ukraine has lost media coverage because Russia has invested a lot of money in its state-owned outlets to prove a point. In Russian terms, President Putin must be heard loud and clear. The desertion of the Ambassador to the UK is only to seal a one-sided narrative.

    Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy has strived to speak clearly and concisely about his country’s needs. The message has got across, but the drama and the theatrics are low on the ground for the sober minded leader of a free state.

    A photo of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky
    A photo of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskky playing table tennis (Credit: File photo).

    The public relations expert in the Kremlin has turned hotheaded in recent years, laying aside a cold conservative pointedness for a more radical assertion of nastier and dirtier politics. Some even say Putin has been ill. True or not, it adds to a concern he’s not been able to stay calm as war continues.

    The rhetoric has to give way to realities on the battlefield. Ukraine has taken many Russian lives and stands to achieve an outright victory for its survival. Russia has far fewer options and much less support worldwide. If he holds his nerve, Zelenskyy will triumph.

  • Putin’s mad professor moment

    Russia is hellbent on creating chaos in Ukraine, invading its space and suffocating its skies. It’s a sophisticated attempt to throttle a modern democracy, overthrow its leaders, and settle the state into a new direction.

    Apart from the atmosphere in Moscow, though, it’s nothing more than a mad scientific experiment to other people.

    A graphic illustration
    A graphic illustration showing Putin holding a glass jar in a laboratory (Credit: OpenAI ChatGPT/Original prompt).

    The analytics side of newscasting can’t see it adding up. Russia’s national security needs aren’t tied to Ukrainian elections. Democracy doesn’t creep across borders. Putin is being paranoid.

    The depth of his rhetoric also suggests a superficiality to the campaign itself. With the Wagner chief now dead, and intellect Alexander Dugin in flight, Putin is increasingly isolated.

    The mad professor moment has come to a stop. The military must withdraw and Russia has to enter its stalemate position again. Such dynamism isn’t its forte. Europe has better things to do. It’s the end.

  • The Middle East is a tug of war

    It’s not going well for America in the Middle East, at least according to sources there.

    The various regimes and authorities that cat call American figureheads have all suggested in one way or another that American forces are depleted and that the Atlantic power has lost the region.

    This means its bases don’t exert control and any diplomatic teams aren’t capable of having significant influence there.

    The likelihood of this being true is low, so say UK military authorities, but it suggests the Middle East hasn’t felt the impact of American strikes and Israeli bombing as much as we may be led to believe.

    Iran is on record as sustaining some damage, and footage from the state shows where it is.

    America retains a significant intelligence exercise in the Middle East and often displays power from a distance. Its claims to victory are premature considering no regime change has taken place.

    Meanwhile, overall defeat of the Persian nation is unlikely considering its considerable civilian protection infrastructure.

    Such claims and counterclaims are the subject of huge media scrutiny but such outlets are usually controlled by state-based contexts that limit cross examination of real, live world events.

  • Exclusive: White House disarray

    America is at war but White House communications staff are still operating as if the country is in a state of peace.

  • Gaza is a work in progress

    In the alternative history books of the Middle East there are meetings of note that took place to illustrate the concerns that people had over the trajectory of things. Saddam Hussein used to rank as one. The seeming spread of poverty was another. Then, there was the question of Gaza and what might happen to an oddly shaped piece of land stuck in the middle of nowhere.

    Today, the events that have engulfed the strip of land on the Mediterranean Sea make for a scene of terror and tragedy. There are whole towns and cities waiting to be liberated from a terror group that has dominated for decades. Their hope is its annihilation, a return to self-determination, and if it’s possible, peace with Israel.

    The move to end the presence of Hamas is long overdue. Its influence has grown beyond the small area defined by war and infighting and into Europe and beyond through infiltration and antagonism. The poison of its violent ideology is documented fact. The merciless advance of its soldiers is beyond doubt a menace.

    Forward thinking analysts see glimpses of a future for the people that are stuck there. Their claim to unique identity is harmed by rampant and ignoble protests in the West, but they cling onto more fundamental beliefs that are in their own history books. Their endurance is proof of community, more than scattered plans.

    However, the struggle for control has an agenda of its own. It cannot be owned by European leaders failing to keep their own borders safe, and it cannot be robbed off them by perverted news agendas. If people in Gaza are determined, their eyes may yet see a real government formed and the best chance it’s got for a political redemption.

  • Russia begins to mourn

    The feelings of Russians may be muted because of its autocratic Presidency, but the facts of life cannot but speak out as a witness of the brutality of its regime.

    As rites of passage go, funerals are becoming a newsworthy spot for the nations’ regions.

    It’s not as if every Russian family has rights to this exclusive treatment, but the empty chairs and emptier hearts still speak toward a brutal reality behind the rigid lines of the Eurasian republic.

    Putin’s war is grinding on and creating heartbreak in every corner of the country.

    He seems resolute but troubled fever spots have erupted as calm gives way to fury at the slow progress of the invasion.

    Russia isn’t a side that backs down easily and patience has to run on for long periods of time.

    But the rising death toll and unlikelihood of a breakthrough anytime soon leads parents and siblings to wonder if their loved one is next.

  • Iran has a quandary on its hands

    The predicament of Iran – in the crosshairs of an American bombardment of its infrastructure – is deeply tied to its readiness. There’s a secrecy over its position that is more than a supposed attempt to make a nuclear weapon. Investigators have previously struggled to work out much of its energy production capacity and related financial information.

    An illustration showing a scene of Tehran with a scene of open warfare (Credit: OpenAI ChatGPT/Original prompt).

    The human element is also missing from our records. Mojtaba Khamenei, its Supreme Leader, is cited as having a stern view of conflict as it pertains to leading an army. “The wheels come to the character,” he once said directly in an interview in London, “the wheels, and certainly, the war.” The threat levelled by an Islamic leader of note is listened to throughout the Muslim world. His language so far has proved it to be true, but the mystery is over his actual influence.

    Meanwhile, the great American machine is whirring away, processing all the relevant data, and anything else it’s learned since. The skies look different in Washington. The mess created on the ground is just a part of a far more intelligent strategy in their own eyes. The firepower of the Atlantic power is also undoubted. It remains a direct threat to Iran in all of its plotting and political networking.

  • Russia sees discord at home

    Russia’s war in Ukraine is proving painful for Russians as fuel shortages are said to frustrate the people in view of requisition measures imposed by military authorities to power their war effort.

    Their Deputy Prime Minister has said the situation is easing up in different parts of the country. But his comments indicate that the problems have been widespread.

    Alexander Novak, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, speaking about fuel shortages (Credit: @kpru/YouTube).

    The Russian state is ‘closed’ as a matter of policy and this affects media reporting. However, its industry of news and journalism is subject to international requirements.

    The manner of Putin’s war has disturbed ordinary Russians in their millions. It has made him a figure of suspicion because he seems to support intelligence in the country over the public.

  • For Iran, setbacks count as clout

    The writings of Mojtaba Khamenei are proving to be a diet of nationalism and regional hatred of America. It’s the former because he regards his people as being foremost in his mind, paying no regard to his neighbours but merely as friends there to admire his country.

    The latter is now a part of Iranian identity and is long established as its paradigm for viewing the West and our collective development. There, everything is put into a single concept for popular usage and as a galvanising force.

    A cartoon graphic
    A cartoon graphic showing the late Ali Khamenei holding a snake with a head of President Trump (Credit: xAI Grok/Original prompt).

    The route he wants to take in current diplomacy is clear: stick close to Iranian principles, stay away from notional ideals that bring other people together. Its bombing of targets in the Middle East prove that this is true.

    Today, in a series of posts made to an X account with his name, Khamenei says “The Great Satan has once again revealed its true, unmasked face,” and we suppose this to mean America, a nation built on compromise and engagement with world peoples.

    This is a malicious public relations stunt designed to prove strength, not moral calibre, that can only be carnal in nature. The Iranian people don’t have the capability to destroy America, but they can try to do harm to its President even if it’s just unpopularity for now.