Warfare

  • Russia is looking for weaknesses – as usual

    President Putin, the spy hawk, is no doubt looking for weaknesses in Ukraine’s return fighting. He may be seeking intelligence on its assets, information on designs for combat, or advance knowledge of new supplies of weaponry and finance.

    This isn’t normal war leadership. It’s a desperate search for answers. This stage of frustration is seen as the beginning of the end of an aggressors stab for power. It shows a lack of ability, because progress slows by the collection of such data, and military chiefs know that it means the end.

    The seat of power that he has is stable in peacetime but not in the uncertainty of conflict, and the fulcrum of Russian crime, tramlines of historical dissent, and uprisings here and there bring up the basic fears of surprises the State of Russia cannot control, leading to trouble within media management control.

    It’s not a clincher, but it lays out the path ahead for a Russian leader more clearly than anything else. If Moscow is to stay neutral on his leadership, and if the President is supposed to regather pride in the nation following a bruising war, its leadership has to prepare a way out that seems fitting for the time and the moment, because the clock is ticking down on victory.

  • We don’t always know what’s behind the frontlines

    The tricky subject matter involved in hostile warfare is the type of false leadership the aggressor intends to setup to occupy for the time afterwards.

    It’s not necessarily true that Adolf Hitler intended to rule over Europe himself. It may have been that he wanted others to govern in his place, and there is evidence to suggest he had been forming a formidable regime to take over once he had declared victory.

    The lack of a final day to his effort and the declaration of victory in Europe and further afield killed off such a plan.

    This is the grey area of war and it takes up the study of many intelligent planners who need to be aware about the realities of victory and defeat in real time in the modern world.

    It can sometimes be confusing because some warmongers have not necessarily taken control once they’ve achieved a sort of victory.

    In the case of Russia it’s not been proved who may take Putin’s place if it took Ukraine. In fact, his plan may be to just influence while he lets the country reshape itself.

    To understand the field of play in Europe takes expertise, and even historic battles are not yet fully resolved in their complexities because what people actually wanted to achieve isn’t clear.

  • Russia’s shows its war planning is a different exercise

    The worded statements emerging from the Kremlin’s closest allies usually exude a funny sort of calmness. But it actually belies a sustained, feigned attempt to appear confident on the international scene even as events unfold. In actual fact, it’s happened in a much different way. On the battlefield, it looks much less like how they had planned it to be in their planning rooms.

    In Russia, the progress of a major event like this is usually guided by such a constant feedback loop. Russians are used to picking up on volumes of information to retain a sense of awareness of what’s going on. If left unbroken, it helps to guide public opinion in the right direction. It benefits the powers that be because this is a model for a public relations strategy that they can use.

    The education in schools that supports the military elite is replete with the ideas that people should always have in mind. It doesn’t matter to begin with that casualty numbers rise, and later, it looks to be a sacrifice that can always be understood in context. In this way it confirms a bias that continues to drive forward the desire of Moscow’s leadership for total control.

  • Iran finds its feet in the interim for now

    Iranians have a lot to think over at the moment, and having just lost an iconic figure who played a large part in the meaning and purpose of its religious and political elite in Tehran, there’s a need for time to recover from such a momentous loss.

    Although some contest it’s not a big difference, and another has come to replace him, Ali Khamenei put more into his diary than a retiring professor of Islamic law might do, showing he had a real zeal for power that left a void in the short term.

    As Iranians find their feet in this new interim, a refreshed power structure will kick into action and will put on a much more updated show of leadership and strength than before. It will likely have more of an impact than we can imagine now.

    This is the changeover that Iranians had thought over, but had not planned for in such a way. They also have to keep in mind that Israel followed through on its main threat. Its biggest rival, having eliminated a Supreme Leader, is in a better position than previously.

    There’s no doubt that tensions are high and will remain so for a long time, but pragmatists have helped to stabilise Iran in recent times, and even if they’ve provoked doubt that not everyone really benefits from holding back from outright war, they may help to keep the peace.

  • Lebanon is a target Israel is counting on

    It’s been a long-held belief of many of Israel’s top military chiefs that Hezbollah – owned by Iran – stands in Israel’s way to lasting peace in the wider region.

    The terror network isn’t a peacemaker at all. It holds a grip in Lebanon that suppresses legitimate economic activity and stifles most of its development.

    The network is said to have been cored by the late Ali Khamenei, emptied of its founding doctrines and filled with his own ambition for the end of Israeli security.

    The calculated mentality of its fighters shows a drivenness to expel Jews from the Middle East, a strategic goal now held by Tehran’s political and social elite.

    The focus on its elimination is a military objective that may frighten some, but the daily reality of instability for all its citizens means Israel won’t let go.

  • Ukraine has shown its way with war – and it works

    The State of Ukraine is beating at the gates of a country that has a full appraisal of itself in many ways. Russia has left no time to waste in covering every corner of its territory, making sure that nothing is left as a mystery to itself.

    Such mastery of its own affairs is an achievement but it can only be respected by itself. The use of it, as well as the reputations of its schools of science and military affairs, draw disdain from many in the wider international community.

    Ukraine has developed its own innovations at a pace, making production a cornerstone of its defensive capabilities. To do this they’ve required the input of a large number of nations. This has come about in terms of finance and firepower, often keeping the enemy at bay at needful times.

    The progress of this war has been hard to follow, because it looks like a two-way fight, and precious few indicators show who’s responsible for what otherwise. We can guess the larger powers are making the most impact, but it’s left to others to tell the story about this.

    Yet, in the silence of these facts it’s become a war effort of promise because Ukraine is ready for the battle as it turns on itself. The people of Ukraine have shown a willingness to keep at the frontlines and trust in the promises of others. This is a noble spirit for all to see.

    The advancement of techniques in fighting has now cemented a new reaction to hostile efforts to takeover and to control. The political drive of Putin is a mania that adds complex toxicity to the battlefield, and modern technology handles this far better than human minds, which slow in the calculation of it.

    In our times there’s a sense of optimism that old styles of aggression that go after things not a part of our modern hopes are not all-encompassing – or inevitable. They can be repudiated in favour of a new arrangement, idea, or concept that keeps its own ground.

  • Khamenei’s leadership is gone with the wind

    Ali Khamenei was driven more by a personal philosophy than was reported in his lifetime, showing that hot political topics are more likely to overshadow prescient points until the details are able to come through. To understand his life is an effort to get to grips with how he saw things everyday, because what he created in Iran is the state it’s in today.

    The nerve centre of his operation is said to have been a planning committee that functioned as his active core. It had the business of preserving the national heritage of the Persian power while building on it with modern innovations. This was to keep the status quo active for as long as his regime was going. It defined his philosophy of being while doing, illustrated by a fusion of religion and modern duties.

    This focus on deliberation actually leaves much of it as a mystery, maybe preserved or maybe having disappeared with his life, because the meetings were kept private. It has a similarity to the meetings that happen between high level personnel, but Khamenei wanted his leadership to be at the crux of what it was about, and so limited its coverage by military secrecy. He defined an era of modern Iran and his leadership cannot easily be forgotten.

  • What now for Ukraine?

    The Ukraine war is a moment of reckoning for Europe because beforehand we felt things were safe.

    Many in high European circles felt that Russia was pacified and that war was not possible. In their eyes, it was the only option and had been since the Second World War.

    The assault on Ukraine is therefore a wakeup call but even now it’s not clear how many should be worried about it.

    There’s obviously a strong reaction to any threat to the security of Europe.

    The Second World War was a costly exercise. Its level of sacrifice continues to have a profound effect on us today, leaving us in a truly defensive mode.

    What we’re willing to do is a first test of structure and integrity.

    NATO juggles its responsibilities as a public exercise. It hasn’t made strong moves against Russia. Its members are largely absent.

    European nations have struggles of their own, being unwilling to drop everything to fight a Russian phantom for Ukraine. It harks back but doesn’t make sense.

    Ukraine has to win but maybe it will happen on its own terms. The ‘boots on the ground’ are Ukrainians seeking an urgent reset for their ambitions.

    If this works Europe has proved that the free world is a place of conclusion for nefarious intent. Any plan of Putin can take a back seat in the great scheme of things.

  • US targets in Iran are precise but misunderstood

    The targeting of a school in Iran – as it’s believed to have been – isn’t understood in the West for obvious reasons. We don’t enact clearances in the same way that military juntas do in the Middle East, who destroy schools as part of victory parades or in preparation for the removal of a rival leader.

    In fact, schools are a battleground in the region. Many are setup each year to bolster the respect of a leader for charitable efforts. Although complaints are made that these are supposed to substitute for a real education, it’s said to have still become a fad amongst warring and tribal loyalists.

    The annihilation of schoolchildren isn’t a stated part of the aims of the American superpower, and it definitely isn’t legal in its own domain.

    Iranians are proud of their education and the loss is a bitterness because it seems so far removed from the actual trouble caused by their former Supreme Leader, who, while not known for indulging in school building for superficial reasons himself, didn’t dissuade from taking part in pettiness, either.

    The result of military action is to see society pockmarked in often distressing ways, reminding us that the imperfect science of leadership has results that cannot be put alongside promises, slogans, or actual outcomes. We are held to a need to keep going, but the facts of the matter are hard to bear.

  • Ukraine’s drone war is a success in the making

    The Ukrainian secret services weren’t known for having a high success rate. Even in the last few decades it’s suffered setbacks that few countries could survive. The battle for secrecy and added advantage is a hard one in a region where Russia already dominates the field.

    Yet, where this has been a point of regret for Ukrainian lawmakers before, the nation’s effort in the response to Russia’s invasion has lifted their spirits. There are signs that such a burden to defend oneself has stirred a new intellectual spirit, mainly among young people.

    The emergence of drone warfare as a weapon of choice indicates that Intelligence is breaking new ground. In a deadly war for ultimate survival, a prioritisation of surveillance toward the end of air superiority is resulting in successes that has put dents in the Russian armoury.

    It’s not a fight to the death, and Ukraine needs sufficient power to deter Russia with strikes that are lasting and final, but it shows a resurgence of proactivity that may outlast the war to prove useful in future. It’s unnerved Moscow’s leadership, for a start.

  • Israel annihilates Iran’s Supreme Leader in shocking blow

    In footage verified by international sources, it’s believed that Iran’s Supreme Leader has been assassinated by an air strike coordinated by the State of Israel and from the State of Israel.

    The shot is a startling reminder of Israel’s firepower, and a stunning victory for the Jewish power still resident in the Middle East.

    It restores the sovereignty of Israeli’s in their own country, and powers a new drive for assertiveness in many of its regional players.

    However, the act is an extremely provocative moment for the State and makes it that much more unpopular in international terms.

    It’s believed UN sources are planning yet more retaliatory discussions against it. These include high-level lawyers and many of its key staff across the world.

    Israel is also struggling to maintain its leadership position due to extensive protests in the country that make it to be unstable.

  • Ukraine is on a bold stretch

    The length of the Ukraine-Russia war means Ukraine is now in a stretch of time during which it’s believed many things will be now decided. The technicalities are included, but also involved are the democratic questions of those still noted as being sympathetic to Russia, even to the point of siding with it.

    President Zelenskyy of Ukraine speaking to the House of Commons in 2022 about his country’s war.

    This may not be as big a constituency as Russia believes, but it’s still a factor in any negotiations. At every table the question will be posed or sit as a silent participant, helping to decide the outcome of arguments. The polling numbers aren’t available because of the disruption of the times, but sympathy slips if the aggressor is too wanton.

  • Ukraine fights hard in word and deed

    Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy has come out fighting against Russian misinformation on many occasions to defend his country’s record and to offer insight to a worldwide audience. It’s not easy reading because he has to state things that are true that many people say are not and use to abuse him.

    This is the nature of politics and of the real world. He knows it and he uses his platform to this advantage. He’s a responsible technician of words and has the acute sensibility needed of a leader. His people benefit widely by his advice and no doubt he has saved Ukrainian lives.

    “Fuck away to Russia. Go home. You don’t respect anybody in the United States. You don’t respect the rules. You don’t respect democracy. You don’t respect Ukraine or Europe. Go home.”

    – @ZelenskyyUa/X

    The future is a binding contract with the people, however, and he needs to focus. His country demands democracy – and more leadership. He has to change tact as soon as he’s asked to. His forward efforts are crucial now to a change of tone and of footing against Russia.

    The State of Ukraine won’t go down to live under the hand of Russia. It will have to prevail, though, by fighting hard until the end. It has to bring this war to an end as the responsible opposing force. The weight of history is behind it, but it must use it intelligently.

  • Two futures are fighting for the same promise

    The Ukraine-Russia war is not something to hold up as an example of how to get things done, but the reality is that the two warring parties are seeking for this to be the outcome of its respective efforts. The matter is how it’s handled.

    On the Russian side, it may be looking for a place for its next President. This is a tall order for Ukraine because their hostile neighbours seek to weigh in heavily on this top political prize. The meaning of the Presidency in modern Russia is now seen to be its foremost priority.

    The negotiations in Moscow over this matter are probably the consideration of all but none of its leadership elite. The place of Putin is secured in its records, but most powerful Russian leaders are pragmatic in their approach. They want repeats, not failures after successes as they see it in the systems of States in the West.

    In Ukraine’s view, the moment is not about another mad leader, so to speak, but an assessment of its progresses – and its compromise. The power ‘loans’ that have given it some scope have allowed it to rise to a new prominence that it didn’t have before. It may struggle to keep it. This pre-eminence in the region is a struggle in the making.

  • Ukraine is fighting a hard ground war

    The likelihood of Russia allowing Ukraine any inch in their marathon battle against Kyiv is low in the great scheme of things.

    Russian strategists have often stated in public and in private that such allowances are illusions in warfare.

    They may sound fair about things beforehand, but during the proceedings Generals in Russia are also known as being ruthless.

    Footage posted in November 2025 to a social chat app showing two Ukraine soldiers fighting for their lives. (Russia vs Ukraine war footage/Telegram)

    The mindset of the aggressor is a key to understanding the next stages of any conflict. It determines the outcome of preparations on the front of the defensive.

    However, the surge in support by new strategy, fresh eyes, or surprise data is of incalculable value to those that have to do the heavy lifting, as it’s proved in Ukraine.

    The daily ramifications of having to fight are part of the true test of character for soldiers, but modern warfare is a much different physical game than before.