World Affairs

  • Statehood is a fact, not a bargain

    The definition of a State is a subject of debate in our times, and while it’s settled in some quarters, its reality is contested by academics in many other ways.

    There’s a strong contingent that now say many countries cannot be recognised – even if they’re noted on the world map – because much of the requirements for such a designation aren’t there.

    This is vital to point out, they claim, because it clarifies that humans aren’t always protected in their existence, and helps to guide an appropriate response must be tailored to what’s found.

    It’s still the case in the UK that particular issues are named under a State no matter the concern about internal realities, and land is divided up by this way of seeing things.

    The public conversation is guided by classical beliefs in statehood, and is not informed by changing circumstances or forces that make or break things.

    The top-level ‘fix’ is often not appropriate to the fragile situation that many people find themselves in, bearing heavily because it makes modern demands that they can’t even hope to satisfy.

    The awareness of situational risk is now being looked at as a better way to understand events, and guide a response that handles matters so that there’s an outcome that improves people’s lives.

    The belief that bearing the weight of the world on our shoulders is both mature and progressive is a performative nightmare that isn’t a future for billions of people that need help right now.

    It’s said that here in the UK, to guide this dynamic, we only officially recognise 177 countries and that there are doubts about the safety of five of these, Israel being a definite.

    It changes the road map completely, suggesting that we can’t send aid or assistance to places that aren’t there, but only to those living along lines of real need and without the proof of livelihood or place.

  • America and Russia challenge each other on new lines

    The ascent of Artemis II into deep space brings back the old challenge that existed between the two competing world powers that never saw eye to eye.

    It’s the extent to which things matter and the sacrifices involved in doing it.

    In recent years many nations have entered a much more advanced space race, leading to a diversification in such competing fields of endeavour as these, and yet there’s a niggling suspicion it’s still true that you can’t teach old dogs new tricks.

    America is a leader of the free world and behind technology uses it can ship to other countries, as well as use to their maximum advantage.

    By example, space travel is not so much a frontier now as a forte that it can hold up as an example of its can do attitude.

    Russia, meanwhile, is stockpiling its power by launching out on missions it alone identifies and defines, muzzling attempts at diplomacy to challenge peace anywhere it chooses to.

    This bolsters its feelings of pride, notching up kudos points at home for the journey, at least.

    But the stakes are high, and such divergent paths are not easy to put together. The determination of what either does next is in psychic territory as far as respective plans are, but there has been a long road to this point.

    There are hints to some successes, either way, but these mean little if they cannot be vocalised and used to ultimate advantage.

    America and Russia come together over these such things, however, and in years to come it will be clear what new advantage there is. The results may be the precursor to the same times as before.

  • Khamenei failed to takeover in the way he wanted

    Ali Khamenei was convinced of his own stature, and while other leaders in his broader circle of ‘friends’ showed more prowess, he denied the signs that he didn’t hold as much influence as he had thought.

    The fervour of the Iranian people in parts guided his thinking on the matter, helping him to believe that trouncing America was not just possible, but close at hand. He didn’t see this as a far off goal, if not a futile dream born of imagination.

    Ali Khamenei speaking about Iran’s disputed standing in the world. (Credit: ImamSayyidAliKhamenei313/Telegram).

    He made great efforts to find friends over current matters, but he didn’t see the bridges built. While Iran has power in the region, it’s not of a similar diplomatic sort that we have, or other free nations enjoy. It doesn’t open doors, it closes them, and this has been its only real effect.

    He wasn’t a dominant figure, or prone to believing in a new world order, but his actions came close to it, even if he didn’t say it. He had every leader of the West in his crosshairs, sparing no-one because he believed in the supremacy of Islam, and the greatness of his god. This affected his politics more than we know.

  • Caught: “Embassy Mirror” suspect

    In an exclusive for Conservative News Site, a suspect in an attempt to setup an “Embassy Mirror” to cover London has now been spotted loitering in Reading, Berkshire.

    A suspect
    A suspect in a criminal “Embassy Mirror” interference program in London seen here in Reading, Berkshire.

    It’s believed it enables criminals to monitor two-way communications of Embassy staff and to use it in campaigns of interference in Politics circles across the world.

  • Mojtaba Khamenei is a brutal opponent for us

    The new Supreme Leader of Iran is not to be messed with, and military games won’t work alongside any response to him. His angle is knowing how we work, and how things operate here is reputed as a special skill that he has.

    Iran has to come up from below because it’s in a poorer state than we are. It needs to try. It also works harder to impress, too, because it’s in a region that has room for powers like itself. It has a combative stance in the Middle East.

    The future direction is less bombastic because Mojtaba has more local concerns. He’s aware of his nation’s problems, and though he too is hindered by a strong desire for Islamic control, his intent is going to matter more to Iranians, and certainly less to us.

    The takeover of power is determined by a progress beyond the legacy of the last incumbent, and while he’s able to strike out on his own, Mojtaba struggles with a respect or reverence for his father that may be a problem for him in future as his status is firmly established.

    The Supreme Leader of Iran is beset also by a mysticism that guides public reaction to events. While protest is mostly seen as secular in nature, there are unpredictable undercurrents that create upward swell or pressure which can destabilise any form of power or control there.

    His position, however, is to react swiftly and he has proved he can deal decisively with these things – and much more. Iran is now a state of control, and glitches may present openings for more levels of unrest than seen before. But he is a leader who knows how.

  • All hail Mojtaba, the new Khamenei

    The election of Ali Khamenei’s son isn’t a new sun rising on Iran, but an old sun setting over it. The approach of a new Supreme Leader is something to be explored, rather than imagined. This is the expectation of some observers as Mojtaba Khamenei takes on the position that comes to define Iran in meaningful, if complicated, ways.

    The subject of Islam also has to come up because it’s so important there and it has an impact on the way things go for foreign adversaries. Iranians are more likely to be short-tempered rather than patient, shooting from the hip than talking it out and seeking a reasonable agreement. The doctrine of the Koran is at the forefront of their ‘thinking’ about matters raised in more international forums.

    Mojtaba is a “quiet intellectual”, so said a now-passed Iranian academic I spoke to in London, and he possesses an equal memory of truth and knowledge. He’s not known as bitter but he takes revenge if he sees it’s justified. This may prove problematic for America, who may see him as a new emperor while Iranians get on with life under a ruler with less than predictable ways.

  • How the world is going to be safer is America’s guess

    America is now at the leading edge of world affairs as it centres on Iran and what happens next. The trouble is working out how to do it.

    The answer is not so obvious as people in leadership spheres may assume. It’s also reliant on a dimension of human resources that isn’t frequently understood.

    The President’s plan is wholesale and intended to be lasting, but the basics of the work is handed down to employees of departments that have to get it right every single time.

    The steps taken next are determinate of a safer world. The ‘as luck will have it’ scenario cannot be true because real issues are at stake for large and aware populations.

    The reality of leadership is long scrutinised by American leaders of all stripes, and the characteristics of this next phase will be determined by the President’s army of the willing.

  • The UK is a power in Europe, but an easy picking

    The foes we have aren’t the ones we used to have. If you look back in our past, those powers and problems are now largely gone. The states that exist today are different and they have other aims in mind.

    In truth, we don’t actually have any enemies. The agitation by world powers is for this cause alone, and we need to get used to it. The more fierce threats are from crime, and from networks that exist everywhere.

    In a microcosm, it may be a smaller matter that draws ire. It’s not our existence or our values, but a strategic advantage a leader wants or an annoyance that hasn’t been resolved. It may be small time diplomacy is needed now.

  • What Moscow does next

    The strikes on Russian aircraft in Siberia rocked the elite in Russia, as it should. Ukraine pulled out a win against a self-confident state. The Goliath factor is no more.

    However, Moscow has room for manoeuvre. Its military is strong. It has public support for its territorial integrity. Essentially, Russians feel anything is legitimate.

    Moscow’s leadership needs to strategise. The future is bleak if it loses. President Putin looks weaker. It may seek his removal if things stay like this for much longer.

    Any reaction is strong, but it has to work. Ukraine is seeking the end of a conflict. It’s unpredictable. The next tipping of the balance may make or break the battle itself.