There’s a belief that economic troubles follow hotly on the heels of Russia, not Iran. The tumult the Middle East feels rarely unsettles real activity, the friendliness of international finance and open banking lines being a bedrock of stability in difficult times.
The story is different with a closed state and European non-partner that peers more than it reveals. Putin knows he has a seat of power that is rarely accessible and has few real benefits for anyone else.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster of proportion for a free and democratic people, and anger grows as it continues. The strikes on Moscow hearten people that an arrogant military elite there will give up in their errant goal.
Later on, the truth about war and its reception worldwide will bear out more strongly. It won’t be so easy to reset trade or to engage buyers and sellers in the same ways. This is because Russia is also a mainstream economy, with a consumer base that understands these matters. It will hit back hard in return.
In broad respect, Russians will see much higher prices. They won’t get what they want without credit lines and more time. It’s believed that savers will have to dig deep to pay their way.
This isn’t a sign of a strong economy but of brittle economic realities. The result of a savage, aggressive war of attrition will be a knock back of proportions. How this affects the global economy is a challenge for policy makers, or just another effort at analysis for economists.