Ukraine Russia Conflict

  • Morale in Russia is a problematic feature

    The increasing death toll for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine is surely proving to be a reason for a cold reception for the war in Moscow and in other parts of Russia too. A report by Defence Intelligence has now suggested that Russia has lost over 1.2 million soldiers.

    It’s starting to look like a fruitless attempt at a takeover of Kyiv and a new imperial Russia is looking less and less likely now. A question is if Russia will give up at the word of its President, and if Putin is willing because the chance of victory looks slim.

  • Russia invokes old war rhetoric

    Russia is seeking to capitalise on market exposure by saying such things to Ukraine that are not worthy of hearing inside the country. The statements of leaders are derogatory to a country that knows what democracy is – and believes in it.

    Russian nationals purportedly transporting a suspect in the shooting of Vladimir Alexeyez at an apartment (Source: Kremlin_Russian/Telegram).

    In saying so, even President Putin runs the risks of sounding like a pariah that is so because he lacks focus or purpose. The implications of such statements aren’t factual. They don’t have a direct regard to the law and can’t be used for it.

    The recent shooting of a Spy Chief in Russia highlights the case that tensions are flaring. It’s possible that inflammatory rhetoric has a role to play in it. This is not certain, but such a belief may underscore the notion that words have power.

  • Putin has added focus to Russian politics

    The political regime of Putin isn’t lacking in ideas. He’s said to be a man of directives, according to those that know him. It’s not uncommon for regional leaders to get exasperated by it. He’s also a meticulous social organiser. It’s believed much of the nationwide events that hold together a unified identity in difficult times are driven by his resolve.

    His addition of focus to Russian politics is the driving power of this current military campaign. Of course, a Russian leader is going to hold all the power, but Putin is an adept political operator. He knows that giving advice is the key to keeping his Generals attention. He also knows that Russian pace slips if it’s not jolted by repeated interventions.

  • Ukraine is our first line of defence in Europe

    Ukraine is fighting a battle against a Russian state that has a lot of resolve behind its campaign to overturn democratic principles and to return regions into its iron grip of paternalistic control.

    This is the bitter reality of fighting on the battlefield in places where Russia had been expelled and should no longer be seen or heard of.

    The regional difficulties that emerge as political technicalities cannot override the notion that powers a Ukrainian’s soldiers belief in his or her country as Europe’s first line of defence.

  • Putin’s Russia is fully nuclear

    The belief is now that Russia has full nuclear capability. This isn’t just suggested by its recent announcement of new technologies it’s put into submarines and missiles, but indicative also of material derived from research into the Russian state.

    The fact is, Russia is a stable threat to us all. If Putin speaks, it’s likely that his words will now be listened to as a lot more literal than before. If he’s taken as a joke, his nuclear deterrent is ready to repel any further humiliation.

    The response of nations across the world must be different if the Russian state makes a move. It’s not a threat it can use to make Ukraine surrender, for instance, but it’s something to reckon with.

  • Russia powers ahead in spite of sanctions

    The state of things on the ground in Russia is different to those along the airwaves. This is the sentiment that many professional Russians have if it comes to Western media.

    They’re proud of their country’s fortunes.

    They believe that recent progress in business and particularly in the energy sector has strengthened their claim to being a future-focused, successful State.

    The longevity of their hopes is found in recent moves to also forge direct links to others. It’s seen in meetings between Russian state and Chinese state representatives.

    It’s also now coming through slowly in its own news.

    The reporting by TASS (a Russian news agency) that Gazprom is selling high amounts of gas to China via its new Power of Siberia pipeline tells us more about its ambitions, and influence.

    The fact is, Russia can and will look elswhere.

    While it may be a policy of shutdown or denial that Russia faces in the West, it can challenge a showdown with America by continuing to build on its regional significance.

  • Europe is not a warmonger

    The Ukraine-Russia conflict is entirely the fault of Russia. Ukraine and its allies did not start it. The often combative Russian state descended into its own malaise.

    It feels like it’s a way out, but this is a false belief. Whatever the security concerns of the closed state, this is not a path to resolution. It opens it up to outright warfare.

  • Russia is a standard enemy

    Russia is a standard enemy as far as we can know one. The exceptional circumstance of either of the World Wars has to be left aside now. In the modern world, there are now State threats everywhere. These sometimes take the form of something like espionage, or at other times it’s just the State itself.

    The terms that we’ve come to use and the fear that we feel are justly applicable to Russia. We can see this because of the Ukrainian struggle that’s underway. Albeit it’s not our fight, what we can look at it like a focused lens on how we see things. We see it’s reality.

  • Russia’s online boasts

    Russia is sending its people online to boast about its fortunes. This is the conclusion to seeing live shows presented by citizens that may be Russian military personnel. The value in doing it is perceived to be a boost to reputation – and morale.

    Clips of alleged Russian military personnel sharing their interests online (via YouTube).

    This is key for the Russian army. It needs to present a living attitude, or standard, so-called that brings to mind a modern Russia that supports its citizens. However, as more people die on the frontlines such tactics look increasingly desperate.

  • Revealed: Russia’s long cold war

    The Russia that we know of is not as historical as we presume, that’s if your dealings with it are purely on its modern terms. The Presidency of Russia is known as technically advanced for example, and it has a tight grip on the Russian people. Its level of control is far higher than in other Western democracies.

    However, the Russian state itself is still riven with desires for older times or more brutal control. There are competing factions that want different forms of Presidency, but these are ideals for a dictatorship and not a more open rule.

    The rumours swirl around the Kremlin, the seat of its power, that Putin has faced tumultuous times in his terms. These include his family disappearing from view, attempts at takeover, and internal conflict. This is not flattering for an administration of public relations.

  • Putin is aiming for a perfect settlement

    Russia says its invasion of Ukraine is to stop a threat to its own national security. However, it’s not just a violation of sovereign territory, but it’s also a call for the cessation of a democratic Ukraine. To many Ukrainians, democracy is still new there and it threatens it.

    Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says the Russian invasion is a national security effort.

    It’s accepted the uncertainty of it is far removed from the problems of other Western powers. The bombardment isn’t like a volley of awkward questions from reporters. It’s more of a fundamental test of resolve. It challenges – and reshapes – national character.

    Putin’s challenge in the effort is a zero-sum game in his eyes. He doesn’t see compromise as necessary to a victory, and agreements may threaten to diminish potential outcomes. It’s a war of perfect returns. He wants a safer Russia and this is how he gets it.

  • The Russian Presidency is a minefield

    The Russian state is a large, complex modern drama that blends politics and deep heritage. However, its mixed blessing even for the Russian people is a curse for the rest of us. It doesn’t lay straight lines for diplomacy as much as it bends and breaks the rules by it.

    All the Presidents of Russia since 1991 (Images: Wikipedia).

    The Ukraine-Russia war is a part of the takeover of the modern Russian mindset by strong Presidents. They love an assertive platform in public. They sabre rattle at their neighbours – who are also now all perceived as enemies.

  • Trump didn’t have to meet Putin

    The Putin-Trump summit isn’t the only way to do it. If the UN hadn’t of berated Israel so much, it might have taken a chance to intervene. It might still have to.

    The problem in international affairs is finding time. There isn’t scope to regret and forget so quickly. The short-term lives on for longer than people think.

    The Israel-Gaza conflict is clearly taking up time – and leading to precious few results. The pressing matter of peace in Europe is taking up American hours.

    It’s the wrong way to do it. The right path is to let peace come by fair means set out for the benefit of the international community. It has to rest on all of us.

  • Putin’s plan is wrong

    Russia is wrong. Putin is selfish. He’s invading sovereign territory. His views are old fashioned. His motive is not crystal clear. He wants to rule a democratic nation. He wants to bait Europe at its doorstep. He’s looking for fights.

    His map is wrong. He doesn’t see the spread of freedom. He doesn’t value elections. He doesn’t regard new parties. He doesn’t note changes in societies. He ignores all this for his own agenda. It’s a poor vision of a dark future.

  • Zelenskyy’s diplomatic approach is strengthening

    In his latest missive on X, Ukraine’s President has launched a sideswipe at many Western approaches at diplomacy. He clearly knows what he wants.

    He thinks we need to learn more about sanctions. The point is they stop more than just one person. It stops all the activity that goes into a war.

    “Sanctions are powerful, when enforced. If loopholes are closed, missile components, including for ballistic systems, simply won’t reach Russia. Sanctions aren’t just about money. They’re about stopping the flow of deadly technology, the parts that enable Russia to produce these horrific weapons at scale.”

    It won’t, however. In fact Russia’s military is complex. It cannot simply be shutdown. He’s right to say it flows, but Russia does it better than just that.

    The aim of sanctions is to impose geopolitical limits. This still leaves the Ukraine front open. It’ll take more than stops in supply chains to win.