The assassination of Ali Khamenei – as it seems likely it was – will bring about a rearrangement of Iranian affairs like no other event that’s preceded such great changes before it. Ever since the founding of the modern State of Iran, progress has been slow and at the behest of very senior leadership. But the strike against a hideout with its former Supreme Leader inside will now lead to such a large scale overhaul of the Persian nation’s strategy, it may count as its biggest ever seen.
At the borders of Israel much more may happen than meets the eye at present. Although Mojtaba Khamenei will want people in Gaza and even the West Bank to look in the direction of his country, there’s little doubt that much territorial uncertainty means its presence can grow there in many different ways and with much more effect.
As far as it goes for Middle East realities, the matters that come up in future will do so with clarity and a lot of force. Israel may not find itself in a strong position every time, and aside for tit for tat, it could face lengthy litigation in political forums or on the battlefield. The position of its allies will matter. The current temper is also not a good sign for any efforts at making peace liveable. Short meetings and extended periods away can draw in even smaller regional partners to make the situation that much more complex.