As Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it was thought that it would result in the annexation of some territories to the State of Russia as a way of placating the admittedly more powerful adversary. It would result only in pro-Russian areas ceding ‘back’ to a Moscow-based rule as a sort of homage, while Ukraine regained itself as a much smaller player on the world stage, also minus some regions it could have held onto.
It’s thought that this is how Putin sees things, and possibly many others across the world. His perspective is that Russian ‘might’ eclipses the West, and that a return of people’s as it were would show it. It would prove in one go that Russia is better than Ukraine – and that Europe better take notice of it.
The trouble is that Russia has stages to its progress, as it has shown in other ways. While many have dreamed of global domination, its place is to worship the position that one can hold in this way. It’s not necessary to subjugate the world. The only important duty is to hold it in possession as a form of influence, or in a de facto treaty with it.
The end of the Ukraine conflict in such a way is not a settlement of the matter at all. An increase of power for Moscow – as it would be – could only result in a further bitter confrontation with Europe, and then still further measures. It’s the only reality. Russia seeks now to build itself up into a force much similar to America or indeed China, to rule over Europe as a parent.
It’s an early start of a renewed push by Moscow elites to gain a better advantage over Europe, to see what it can do and to flex its muscles in more modern ways. The challenge is formiddable, but Europe can overcome it – if it takes it seriously, that is. The chances of that are not good, considering the divided nature of even NATO-style diplomacy, but if Ukraine keeps it under control, the future may be different.
